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Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after West Ham 2 Newcastle 2

2 months ago

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches that were played on Saturday, with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Sunday 8 October

Brighton 2.23 v Liverpool 2.51 (2-2)

West Ham 0.93 v Newcastle 1.98 (2-2)

Wolves 1.76 v Villa 1.82 (1-1)

Three matches kicked off at 2pm on Sunday, all ending in draws.

However, as you can see from these underlying expected goals stats above, one of the six teams can count themselves very unlucky not to win.

Wolves and Villa had almost identical expected goals stats (1.76 v 1.81).

Whilst Brighton and Liverpool had expected goals stats where one of them had only around 10% higher stats than the other (2.23 and 2.51).

However, at the London Stadium, West Ham had an expected goals stat of only 0.93, with Newcastle United’s more than twice as much, at 1.98.

Anybody claiming that Newcastle United weren’t the better team is having a laugh. Twice as much possession (35% v 65%), twice as many shots (5 v 10) AND more than twice the Expected Goals stat!

Stats from BBC Sport:

West Ham 2 Newcastle 2 – Sunday 8 October 2pm


Newcastle United:

Isak 57, 62

West Ham:

Soucek 8, Kudus 89

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was West Ham 35% (29%)  Newcastle 65% (71%)

Total shots were West Ham 5 (1) Newcastle 10 (3)

Shots on target were West Ham 3 (1) Newcastle 3 (0)

Corners were West Ham 4 (1) Newcastle 2 (0)

Referee: Peter Bankes

Newcastle United:

Pope, Trippier, Lascelles, Schar, Burn, Longstaff, Bruno, Tonali, Almiron (Murphy 82), Isak (Wilson 86), Anderson (Targett 90+3)


Dubravka, Dummett, Ritchie, Manquillo, Hall, Livramento

Newcastle United upcoming matches:

Saturday 21 October 2023 – Newcastle v Crystal Palace (3pm)

Wednesday 25 October 2023 – Newcastle v Dortmund (8pm) TNT Sports

Saturday 28 October 2023 – Wolves v Newcastle (5.30pm) Sky Sports

Wednesday 1 November 2023 – Manchester United v Newcastle United (8.15pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 4 November 2023 – Newcastle v Arsenal (5.30pm) Sky Sports

Tuesday 7 November 2023 – Borussia Dortmund v Newcastle (5.45pm) TNT Sports

Saturday 11 November 2023 – Bournemouth v Newcastle (5.30pm) Sky Sports

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Very interesting on Newcastle United after 2-2 against West Ham – Read HERE)

(West Ham 2 Newcastle 2 – Match ratings and comments on all of the NUFC players – Read HERE)

(West Ham 2 Newcastle 2 – Instant NUFC fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

(West Ham 2 Newcastle 2 – Could (should?) have been all three points for Newcastle United – Read HERE)


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