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Probability model rates chances of Newcastle United winning at Aston Villa

11 months ago

Newcastle United travel to Aston Villa this Saturday and interesting to see what this probability model makes of Eddie Howe and his side’s chances of coming away with one or three points.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches in this weekend round of games, including Aston Villa v Newcastle.

Their computer model gives Aston Villa a 30% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 44% possibility of a Newcastle United win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United over the course of the rest of the season.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United now a 84% chance of finishing top four and getting Champions League football.

As for the competitors, the system gives the following probabilities of top four:

Arsenal 99%, Man City 99%, Man U 79%, Tottenham 18%, Brighton 10%, Liverpool 8%.

As for relegation, the computer model doesn’t involve Newcastle United now…

Regarding the relegation picture overall, the computer model has Southampton most likely (80%) to be relegated, with then Forest a 75% shot, Leicester (48%), Everton (42%), Leeds (20%), Bournemouth (18%),  Wolves (9%), West Ham (8%).

At the very top they now rate Man City a 59% chance of finishing as champions and Arsenal a 41% chance of retaining the title.


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