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FiveThirtyEight model rates chances of Newcastle United ending in Premier League top 4 this season

1 year ago
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Interesting overview of Newcastle United and their chances now of finishing Premier League top four.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

We can see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United by the end of the season (in the Premier League top four, or not).

Newcastle United were of course back in Premier League action, losing at reigning champions Man City.

However, plenty of other Premier League games affected things in the top half of the table.

Arsenal as well as Man City won at the very top.

Man U and Tottenham lost, as well as Fulham (on Monday night at Brentford).

As for the other winners who could potentially get a top four spot, victories for Liverpool, Brighton, Brentford and Chelsea.

This is how the Premier League table now looks on Tuesday:

At the very top, the computer models rates Arsenal a 55 % chance of winning the title, with Man City 45%.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United now a 24% chance of finishing top four and getting Champions League football.

With rival clubs to do the same, rated as Arsenal 99%, Man City 99%, Man Utd 74%, Liverpool 43%, Tottenham 28% Brighton 26%, Brentford 3%, Chelsea less than 1%.

As for relegation, the computer model now makes NUFC no longer a participant in the battle for the drop, having amassed 41 points in 24 matches.

Regarding the relegation picture overall, the computer model has Bournemouth most likely (64%) to be relegated, with then Southampton (62%), Everton (58%), Forest (41%), Leeds (29%), West Ham (14%), Wolves (13%), Leicester (11%), Crystal Palace (8%).

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