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Sky Sports expert’s verdict – Very interesting on Newcastle United situation and chances v Crystal Palace

1 year ago
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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on Newcastle’s game against Crystal Palace.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Fulham game.

Sky Sports – Betting expert ‘Jones Knows’ predicts what will happen with Crystal Palace v Newcastle:

“Newcastle are heading towards the Champions League.

“It’s no fluke either when you look at their underlying data that assesses the dirtier side of the game, most notably defending and being a threat from set pieces.

“They are the best in the Premier League at both.

“Newcastle have now kept eight clean sheets in their last 10 Premier League games, conceding just two goals.

“And boy are they a threat from set pieces.

“Eddie Howe’s side have fired 106 shots from set piece situations to a backdrop of an expected goals figure of 10.09 – the best returns of any team across both metrics.

“It’s therefore a huge underperformance to have only merited six goals from such situations this season – six teams have scored more.

“I’d side with them finding a way past Crystal Palace, who are yet to win against a current top half team this season, in a low scoring clash.

“Those looking for a betting angle in should invest in Dan Burn’s shots and goals odds on offer.

“Palace have shipped the most expected goals from set pieces of any team in the Premier League this season (8.08) so have been very fortunate to concede just four goals.

“Also, in the reverse meeting between these two at St James’ Park, Newcastle created a whopping 2.08 expected goals from set pieces in that 0-0. The most any team has created this season in a single game and only bettered by Manchester City’s haul of 2.56 against Norwich when assessing all Premier League games since the start of last season.

“Burn had a shot in just 11 minutes on the pitch in that clash with Palace and managed a shot in the 1-0 win for the Toon over Patrick Vieira’s team in April. He goes up for every set piece with his average touches in the opposition box bringing in a healthy return of 1.43 per-90 over a 36-game sample size with his shots per-90 data coming in at 0.6.

“This all equates to the 13/8 with Sky Bet available on him having one or more shots being very appealing. He is 40/1 with Sky Bet to score first, too – something that landed in Newcastle’s Carabao Cup win over Leicester where he actually scored from open play with a rampaging run from left-back.

“SCORE PREDICTION: Crystal Palace 0 Newcastle 1.”

A lot of good stuff in there and I agree with the Sky Sports expert when it comes to his comments about both clubs.

The last eight Palace games (all competitions) have produced six defeats, one win and one draw, that run of results kicking off with defeat at St James’ Park in the cup.

Newcastle United are unbeaten in their last 14 in the Premier League and have five PL clean sheets in a row as well.

On top of that, 30 points from the last possible 36, nine wins and three draws in their last 12 PL matches.

Interesting what the Sky Sports man says about set-pieces. Based on chances created Newcastle should be scoring a lot more in those situations, whilst the opposite for Palace, they are conceding loads of chances at set-pieces but have got lucky in conceding few goals at them…so far.

The Sky Sports expert highlights Dan Burn and he is has increasingly looked a goal threat, I do though have a feeling that Sven Botman scoring his first Newcastle United goal isn’t too far away…

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