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Opinion

Expected Goals stats tell the real story after Newcastle 1 Everton 0

1 year ago
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Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the midweek matches Premier League Expected Goals stats (actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Tuesday 18 October

Brighton 2.10 v Nottingham Forest 0.20 (0-0)

Crystal Palace 1.26 v Wolves (0.86) (2-1)

Wednesday 19 October

Bournemouth 0.81 v Southampton 1.24 (0-1)

Brentford 1.45 v Chelsea 0.56 (0-0)

Newcastle United 1.13 v Everton 0.06 (1-0)

Liverpool 2.24 v West Ham 2.49 (1-0)

Man Utd 1.71 v Tottenham 0.66 (2-0)

As you can see, in most cases the winners matched up with the Expected Goals stats.

The team that works the best chances most often in a match, gives itself the best chance of winning.

So Southampton, Palace, Man Utd and Newcastle United were deserving of their wins on balance of play / chances.

Liverpool and West Ham were well matched and the Hammers deserved at least a point, which they would have got if converting the penalty they were awarded.

Brighton and Brentford were the better teams but failed to convert their superior / more chances into goals.

If we concentrate on the Newcastle 1 Everton 0 match, the expected goals stats really underline what a brilliant defensive job NUFC did.

Everton with an all but invisible 0.06 expected goals stat, they didn’t have a single effort on target and their only shot in the entire match was Calvert-Lewin heading miles over from a corner. They quite literally never threatened Newcastle’s goal.

So whilst Eddie Howe’s team have created a far bigger goal threat in many other matches this season, their 1.13 expected goals stat sums up that NUFC were more than worth their 1-0 victory, with sixteen shots in total (compared to Everton’s one), four on target (zero for Everton) and eight corners (two for Everton).

Stats from BBC Sport:

Newcastle 1 Everton 0 – Wednesday 19 October 7.30pm

Goals:

Almiron 31

Newcastle United:

Everton:

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Everton 50% (41%) Newcastle 50% (59%)

Total shots were Everton 1 (1) Newcastle 16 (8)

Shots on target were Everton 0 (0) Newcastle 4 (3)

Corners were Everton 2 (1) Newcastle 8 (4)

Referee: Tony Harrington

Newcastle United:

Pope, Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn, Longstaff, Bruno, Joelinton (Willock 45), Murphy (Anderson 72), Almiron (Fraser 73), Wilson (Wood 87)

Unused Subs:

Karius, Lascelles, Targett, Shelvey, Lewis

(Newcastle 1 Everton 0 – Match ratings and comments on all the NUFC players – Read HERE)

(Official Newcastle United update on injury / fitness situation after Everton and and ahead of Spurs – Read HERE)

(Match Report – Everton target Newcastle United after giving up on ever competing with Liverpool – Read HERE)

(Frank Lampard embarrassingly blames match officials for Newcastle United defeat – Read HERE)

(The stats smash it and say it all – Newcastle 1 Everton 0 – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 1 Everton 0 – The instant NUFC fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Newcastle 1 Everton 0 – The three big points that I’m taking from the match – Read HERE)

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