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FiveThirtyEight probability model rates chances of Newcastle beating Fulham and finding success this season

1 year ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Fulham.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United against Fulham.

Their computer model gives Fulham a 33% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 42% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United over the course of the season.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United a 7% chance of finishing top four..

As for relegation, that is slightly less likely according to the forecasts, the computer model currently makes NUFC a 6% chance of going down.

Regarding the relegation picture overall, the computer model has Nottingham Forest most likely (68%) to be relegated, with then Bournemouth a 49% shot, Leicester (27%), Everton (25%), Wolves (23%), Southampton (23%), Leeds (16%), Fulham (16%), West Ham (15%) and Villa (11%).

At the top they rate Man City a 66% chance of retaining the title, with Liverpool 15%, Arsenal 8%, Tottenham 6%, Chelsea 3%, Man Utd 1% and Brighton 1%.


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