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Newcastle United rated a 30 per cent chance to avoid defeat to Manchester City

1 year ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against Man City.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United against Man City.

Their computer model gives Man City a 70% chance of a win, it is 18% for a draw and a 12% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

So Newcastle United with a 30% chance of avoiding defeat, according to this prediction model.

Difficult to disagree with that as Man City have started the season so well, two wins and six goals scored, none conceded.

However, Newcastle United have kept a clean sheet in five of their last eight Premier League games and in the last 10 PL matches, have won seven and drawn one, the only losses to Liverpool and…Manchester City.

A massive test for Eddie Howe and his players on Sunday.

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United over the course of the season.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United an 7% chance of finishing top four, whilst less than a 1% possibility / probability of actually winning the title.

As for relegation, that is slightly more likely according to the forecasts, the computer model currently makes NUFC a 10% chance of going down.

At the top they rate Man City a 59% chance of retaining the title, with Liverpool 18% and Chelsea 10%, then Tottenham 6% and Arsenal 4%.

As for relegation, the computer model has Nottingham Forest most likely (47%) to be relegated, with Bournemouth a 39% shot. Then follows Southampton (34%), Fulham (33%)  and Everton (26%) as the fourth and fifth most likely to go down.


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