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Newcastle United goals – This is what is needed for top four / six / eight

1 month ago
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Fair to say Newcastle United goals have been difficult to come by in the past decade.

Starting with the 2012/13 season, NUFC have never managed more than 46 in a PL campaign.

There has been one season in the Championship but in the last nine PL seasons this past decade, there have been the following number of goals each time (from 2012/13 working forwards) – 45, 43, 40, 44, 39, 42, 38, 46 and 44.

Not exactly difficult to see why Newcastle United struggled so badly under Mike Ashley’s ownership.

No surprise that the last time the Newcastle United goals total was respectable (56), it was in 2011/12 when NUFC ended up fifth in the table. However, the then owner refused to build on that surprise breakthrough season and allowed not a penny of net spend in summer 2012, a number of fringe players sold to pay for the only signing, the very average Vurnon Anita. A demoralised squad then almost getting relegated that following 2012/13 season.

Maybe more surprising is that in 2010/11 season, Newcastle United also scored 56 goals. Chris Hughton built a very decent team that would also form the basis of that fifth place side the following season, however, he was sacked in December 2010 despite NUFC in mid-table. Bringing in instead a patsy / stooge in Alan Pardew, so that the manager would raise no objections when he (Ashley) sold Andy Carroll in the January and didn’t bring in a replacement striker / goalscorer (I’m not counting Kuqi!!!). Another wasted opportunity.

The first two Premier League seasons of the Mike Ashley reign had produced only 46 and 40 Newcastle United, very much in keeping with what we’d come to expect. With the exception of that team Chris Hughton set on its way, which managed 56 goals two seasons in a row.

Last season, there were only 44 Newcastle United goals in the Premier League and this is how they were split:

8 Wilson

5 ASM, Bruno G

4 Joelinton

3 Own goals

2 Schar, Trippier, Shelvey, Fraser, Willock, Wood

1 Lascelles, Manquillo, Hayden, Murphy, Almiron, Sean Longstaff, Hendrick

Whilst a tight defensive record can get you so far, as we saw in the second half of last season under Eddie Howe (final 20 games, if you take out the away matches at Spurs and Man City, Newcastle conceded only 11 goals in the other 18 PL matches), in reality you have to score a decent number of goals to progress and establish yourself at the upper end of things.

For guidance, in 2021/22, the top four clubs scored 69 goals or more, the top six it was 57 or more, whilst top eight was also 57 or more.

For rough figures, I think we have to be aiming for an added 15 Newcastle United goals (or more) next season on top of last season’s total of 44, if the club are to stand a chance of taking a major leap forward.

Looking at the current Newcastle players, I think that if injuries treat us kindly, we could potentially hope for these individual Newcastle United goals totals

16 Wilson

7 ASM

6 Bruno G

5 Joelinton, Wood

That makes 39 goals, add say another three own goals as we benefited from last season, then I can’t really see much more than 10 goals coming from the rest of the squad / team.

That gives us a maximum of 52 Newcastle United goals next season.

However, so much riding on Callum Wilson staying fit pretty much all season, which is asking a lot. He has only been able to start 39 of the 76 PL games at Newcastle so far.

I think we really need those others in midfield / attack to step up, or ideally bring in somebody wide right who will score goals and / or somebody in midfield who will do the same playing alongside Bruno G and Joelinton.

As things stand, you look at Willock, Longstaff, Almiron, Shelvey, Fraser etc and the challenge is whether they can produce more goals if playing regularly, than they did last season – only eight between them in 2021/22.

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