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Sky Sports expert’s verdict – Backs Newcastle United not to lose, analysis on past Manchester City reactions to key nights in Europe

1 week ago
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The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some excellent analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on Newcastle’s game against Manchester City.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Manchester City game.

Coming to the conclusion that Newcastle United could cause Manchester City major problems this afternoon AND tipping Eddie Howe’s team NOT to lose.

Sky Sports – Betting expert ‘Jones Knows’ predicts what will happen with Newcastle v Crystal Palace:

“In my world of trying to nick a few quid off the bookmakers, price is absolutely everything and everything has its price.

“Some people simply don’t understand that I’m not trying to argue who do I think will win the game but I’m trying to make a well-reasoned case for why a certain scenario is overpriced.

“I took on Manchester City last week when the odds suggested they had an 80 per cent chance of beating Leeds and I’ve got to stick to my guns with my ‘after a Champions League matchday’ theory when they are being given an 89 per cent chance this weekend against a far more dangerous side than Leeds, albeit they are at home.

“I am happy to swim against the market as I remain very edgy about City after they have played a Champions League knockout match especially with the mental hangover potentially lingering from Wednesday. Their heads will be frazzled.

“There is a pattern emerging of them being vulnerable. After 16 knockout games where that tie was realistically in the balance, they have lost on seven occasions in the next domestic match to Leeds (1-2), Chelsea (0-1), Chelsea (1-2), Wigan (0-1), Manchester United (2-3), Tottenham (2-3) and Liverpool (2-3).

“There does seem a drop in levels after a big midweek effort in Europe where the emotions involved in their pursuit for that elusive trophy do seem to weigh heavy.

“It’s impossible to put a number on how much the complete choke against Real Madrid will affect their mentality back in a competition that they are four wins away from landing.

“Lifting his players after what happened on Wednesday will be a big test for the boss.

“But with such an in-form team on their doorstep in Newcastle, backing the 9/2 with Sky Bet for Eddie Howe’s men to win or draw is just too juicy to ignore.

“Since Newcastle’s 1-0 Premier League away win vs Leeds on January 22, only Liverpool (37) have taken more Premier League points than Newcastle (31). They have taken four more points than Manchester City in this period, albeit having played three games more. If they can defend in their usual strong structure and hit shrewdly on the break, then those taking the 1/8 with Sky Bet on a home win could have an anxious Sunday afternoon.

“SCORE PREDICTION: Manchester City 1 Newcastle United 1

“BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle to win or draw (9/2)”

A lot of good stuff in there and obviously the facts / stats speak for themselves, with the Sky Sports expert making clear that Eddie Howe has made Newcastle United a far formidable proposition, after turning around the mess he inherited thanks to Mike Ashley and Steve Bruce.

Newcastle having won 10 games in a run of 14 Premier League matches before losing to Liverpool last weekend.

Whilst since that home defeat to Man City five months ago on 19 December 2021, Eddie Howe’s team have only once conceded more than one goal in a game on a single occasion. That is once in 18 games that more than one goal has been conceded by NUFC.

Very interesting as well to see Lewis Jones’ analysis concerning how Manchester City have reacted after previous Premier League matches following massive knockout games in Europe.

Man City obviously have a lot of very good players but predictably they did look absolutely devastated on Wednesday night, when throwing away the chance of another Champions League final.

Newcastle United have a woeful record at the Etihad having lost their last 12 PL games there but if they can find a goal from somewhere, then just maybe with this new look NUFC defence, Howe’s team could manage a point (or even better…?). Despite that PL losing run here, whilst Newcastle haven’t scored in their last two visits here, in the previous 10 defeats at the Etihad, Newcastle United did score a goal.

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