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Probability model rates chances of Newcastle United beating Wolves and relegation battle

1 month ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Friday’s match against Wolves.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including Newcastle United against Wolves.

Their computer model gives Wolves a 33% chance of a win, it is 29% for a draw and a 37% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number). So basically, Newcastle United rated at only around at just better than a one in three chance (37%) of winning and a two in three chance (66%) of avoiding defeat and getting a draw or better.

After a run of nine matches undefeated and picking up 19 points from a possible 21 in a run of seven games that saw six wins and a draw, the fates then conspired against Eddie Howe and his players. Losing to very late goals against both Chelsea and Everton, in games they didn’t deserve to lose, before very much deserving to lose to Tottenham thanks to that second half collapse.

Wolves would move top six with a win and only two points off fourth, ahead of the other clubs playing this weekend.

Bruno Lage has them playing good football this season but Newcastle will be boosted by the fact that amongst the players missing for the visitors, are the injured Neves and suspended Jimenez.

This is how the Premier League table looks on Friday morning ahead of this weekend’s matches:

Premier League Table 7 April 2022

At the very top, this probability model rates it a pretty close fight, with Man City a 64% chance to win the title and Liverpool 36%.

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation for Newcastle United and their rivals at this stage of the season…:

99% Norwich

83% Watford

50% Everton

37% Burnley

24% Leeds

6% Newcastle United

1% Brentford

Norwich (99%) seen as pretty much almost needing snookers now, whilst Watford (83%) also seen as almost certainly doomed by this prediction model.

However, the third relegation spot all to play for and very interesting to see that for the first time Everton (50%) are seen as the most likely to join them. The scousers have a really tough schedule to end the season and in their last 23 Premier League matches have lost a massive 17 of them, winning only three.

Burnley (37%) massively boosted their chances of staying up with that late win over Everton on Wednesday and even though a point behind the blue scousers, are seen to have more of a chance of staying up due to an easier set of matches to end the season.

Leeds (24%) have picked up seven points in their last three games and are five and six points respectively above Everton and Burnley, however, that pair have two games in hand each on Leeds.

As well as Newcastle’s game with Wolves, some massive other games at the bottom end, as Everton host Man Utd on Saturday lunchtime, before Watford v Leeds, then Norwich v Burnley on Sunday.

As for Newcastle United, only a 6% possibility of now going down, so roughly a one in seventeen chance according to the probability model.

As for the bookies, they (various bookies and most common prices) currently see the relegation likelihood as 1/100 Norwich, 1/5 Watford, 1/1 Burnley, 1/1 Everton, 4/1 Leeds, 25/1 Newcastle United, 40/1 Brentford.

Newcastle United are now 25/1 to be relegated, whilst to finish top half of the table NUFC now 20/1 after the three defeats in a row.


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