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Probability model rates chances of Newcastle United beating Tottenham and relegation battle

2 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against Tottenham.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including Newcastle United against Tottenham.

Their computer model gives Tottenham a 65% chance of a win, it is 21% for a draw and a 14% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number). So basically, Newcastle United rated at only around a one in seven chance (14%) of winning and roughly a one in three chance (35%) of avoiding defeat.

After a run of nine matches undefeated and picking up 19 points from a possible 21 in a run of seven games that saw six wins and a draw, the fates then conspired against Eddie Howe and his players. Losing to very late goals against both Chelsea and Everton, in games they didn’t deserve to lose.

Tottenham obviously have some very good players but their results don’t suggest they are a very good team. A decent one of course and fifth in the table (see below) probably is about where they are at in terms of the pecking order currently. However, their inconsistency is summed up by the last ten matches, five wins and five defeats in the Premier League.

Two of those recent defeats were at home to Southampton and Wolves, whilst Antonio Conte and his team also lost away at Burnley. So this is a difficult game for Newcastle United but certainly not mission impossible in terms of picking up at least a point.

This is how the Premier League table looks on Friday morning ahead of this weekend’s matches:

Premier-League Table-21 March 2022

At the top, this probability model rates it a pretty close fight, with Man City a 62% chance to win the title and Liverpool 38%.

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation for Newcastle United and their rivals at this stage of the season…:

99% Norwich

83% Watford

51% Burnley

32% Everton

23% Leeds

7% Brentford

4% Newcastle United

Norwich (99%) seen as pretty much almost needing snookers now, whilst Watford (83%) also seen as almost certainly doomed by this prediction model.

However, the third relegation spot all to play for and Burnley (51%) seen as a toss of the coin in terms of whether they will be the one.

If Burnley (or Watford and / or Norwich…) do escape the drop, Everton (32%) seen as the most likely to replace them despite that smash and grab win against Newcastle, with then Leeds (23%) next in line.

Winning against Norwich and Burnley amongst their last three games before the latest international break has massively changed Brentford (7%) chances of staying up, previous to that they had picked up only one point in an eight game run.

As for Newcastle United, only a 4% possibility of now going down, so a one in twenty five chance according to the probability model.

As for the bookies, they (various bookies and most common prices) currently see the relegation likelihood as 1/100 Norwich, 1/8 Watford, 1/2 Burnley, 11/4 Everton, 7/2 Leeds, 8/1 Brentford, 33/1 Newcastle United.

Newcastle United are now 33/1 to be relegated, whilst to finish top half of the table NUFC now only 10/1.


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