Get your daily update and weekly newsletter by signing up today!


Probability model rates chances of Newcastle United beating Leicester and relegation battle

1 month ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against Leicester.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including Newcastle United against Leicester.

Their computer model gives Leicester a 35% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 39% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number). So basically, Newcastle United rated at only around at just better than a one in three chance (37%) of winning and a two in three chance (66%) of avoiding defeat and getting a draw or better.

After a run of nine matches undefeated and picking up 19 points from a possible 21 in a run of seven games that saw six wins and a draw, the fates then conspired against Eddie Howe and his players. Losing to very late goals against both Chelsea and Everton, in games they didn’t deserve to lose, before very much deserving to lose to Tottenham thanks to that second half collapse.

However, NUFC getting back on track with that hard fought 1-0 victory over Wolves on Friday night.

Wolves would move top six with a win and only two points off fourth, ahead of the other clubs playing this weekend.

This is how the Premier League table looks on Thursday morning ahead of this weekend’s matches:

Premier League Table 10 March 2022

At the very top, this probability model rates it a pretty close fight, with Man City a 64% chance to win the title and Liverpool 36%.

We can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation for Newcastle United and their rivals at this stage of the season…:

99% Norwich

95% Watford

59% Burnley

33% Everton

11% Leeds

2% Newcastle United

Norwich (99%) seen as pretty much almost needing snookers now, whilst Watford (95%) also seen as almost certainly doomed by this prediction model.

However, the third relegation spot all to play for and Burnley (59%) back to being favourites to join the bottom two for the drop, after that dismal 2-0 defeat at Norwich last weekend.

Everton (33%) back out to being next most likely to go down, thanks to their 1-0 win over Man Utd.

Leeds (11%) have picked up ten points in their last four games and are nine points clear of Burnley, who have two games in hand. However, the new manager bounce for Leeds doesn’t look like grinding to a halt.

As for Newcastle United, only a 2% possibility of now going down, so a one in fifty chance according to the probability model.

As for the bookies, they (various bookies and most common prices) currently see the relegation likelihood as 1/66 Norwich, 1/16 Watford, 4/11 Burnley, 11/4 Everton, 10/1 Leeds, 60/1 Newcastle United.

Whilst to finish top half of the table NUFC now 14/1 after the victory over Wolves.


If you would like to feature on The Mag, submit your article to [email protected]

Have your say

© 2022 The Mag. All Rights Reserved. Design & Build by Mediaworks