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Transfer Market

Stop press: Sevilla and Newcastle United now moving closer to Diego Carlos transfer – Sky Sports

4 months ago
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Wednesday night saw Diego Carlos play the full match as Sevilla drew 1-1 away at Valencia.

Consistent reporting throughout the January transfer window has been that Diego Carlos wants to come to St James Park, Newcastle want to buy him and have made a number of bids so far, plus Sevilla are interested in selling IF they get the right offer.

Earlier today, I wrote an article explaining why I thought there had been a massively over the top reaction to comments made following last night’s Sevilla match. Diego Carlos asked about his future, replying with: ‘I have a lot of time left here [in Spain with Sevilla],’ whilst with Sevilla boss Julen Lopetegui having tested positive for Covid, his assistant Pablo Sanz was on media duties and when predictably asked about the Diego Carlos transfer situation, Sanz said that he thought the defender will be at Sevilla ‘until the end of the season.’

My take on it was, these kind of replies are what you would always get during a long running transfer saga, they are going to say this type of thing regardless of whether or not the transfer is still a possibility. I also made the point that it is surely a now or never deal between the two clubs, as Newcastle United are willing to pay a premium of around £10m-£15m more for Diego Carlos now to help them with their relegation fight (as well as what he can contribute in the following seasons), as compared to what transfer fee any club would be prepared to pay this summer. Considering Diego Carlos will be aged 29 and a half by then, as he turns 29 in March.

My belief was that a Diego Carlos move could still happen and as the window nears a close, the two clubs potentially coming to a late agreement.

Well, the reality is that more positive reports on the Diego Carlos transfer saga have emerged far quicker than that, plus on social media Carlos himself appearing to rubbish the idea that there is no chance of him leaving Sevilla this window.

Craig Hope of The Mail – 20 January 2022:

“Sources say they remain very hopeful of Newcastle completing a deal for Sevilla’s Diego Carlos.”

Keith Downie of Sky Sports – 20 January 2022:

“Newcastle remain hopeful of completing their move for Brazil defender Diego Carlos – that despite reports in Spain last night he’s set to stay at Sevilla.

“We’re told the two clubs are getting closer to an agreement for the 28-year-old.

“Carlos wants to leave (Keith Downie also crediting his Sky Sports colleague Kaveh Solhekol).”

Newcastle United have a seventeen days gap after Leeds away on Saturday, before playing Everton at home on Tuesday 8 February. A similar break in Spain, where Sevilla play at home to Celta Vigo on Saturday before a fortnight’s break.

I don’t think Leeds was ever a possibility for Diego Carlos to be signing in time for and got ready BUT now with this 17 days between matches, it is ideal to bring him (and potentially others) into Newcastle to properly get them ready for Everton at home and beyond.

Obviously a lot has to happen before we get to that BUT I do put a lot more weight on these reports from The Mail and Sky Sports, than the nonsense that flowed from elsewhere in the media after the comments made last night after that Sevilla match.

I think every chance that the reality is that all three parties (two clubs and player) want this deal to happen, so the ‘only’ thing now is for Sevilla and Newcastle United to reach a final agreement after a number of NUFC bids have crept higher and higher…

As for what the Diego Carlos stats tell us, this is how Sevilla have got on these past six seasons in La Liga:

2016/17 – Finish 4th in La Liga, conceding 49 goals in 38 games

2017/18 – Finish 4th in La Liga, conceding 58 goals in 38 games

2018/19 – Finish 6th in La Liga, conceding 47 goals in 38 games

2019/20 – Finish 4th in La Liga, conceding 34 goals in 38 games

2020/21 – Finish 4th in La Liga, conceding 33 goals in 38 games

2021/22 – Currently second in La Liga, conceding 14 goals in 21 games

So, Diego Carlos signed for Sevilla in June 2019, bought from Nantes for £13m.

In the three seasons before he arrived, Sevilla conceded 154 goals in 114 league matches, indeed, 105 in the very last two before Diego Carlos came in.

Since the Brazilian arrived, Sevilla have conceded 81 goals in 97 league games

In the three seasons before, Sevilla averaging 1.35 goals conceded per match, after Carlos arrived that average becoming 0.83 goals conceded per La Liga match.

Diego Carlos has started 87 of the 97 La Liga matches since his arrival,  this season, only 14 goals conceded in 21 La Liga matches and Carlos has started and played every minute of 20 of the 21. Leaders Real Madrid have conceded four more than Sevilla, whilst the clubs in third and fourth have each conceded 24 compared to Sevilla’s 14.

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