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Newcastle United now rated only 32% chance of beating relegation ahead of Leicester match

2 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the relegation fight this season and Saturday’s match against Leicester.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including Newcastle United against Leicester.

Their computer model gives Leicester a 53% chance of a win, it is 23% for a draw and a 24% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the Premier League title, they have the probability of Man City a 47% chance, Liverpool 41%, 11% Chelsea and the rest nowhere.

Of more interest / pressing concern we can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation for Newcastle United and their rivals at this stage of the season…:

76% Norwich

68% Newcastle United

42% Burnley

37% Watford

15% Leeds

14% Brentford

14% Southampton

9% Crystal Palace

8% Everton

5% Wolves

5% Leicester

4% Aston Villa

2% Brighton

There have obviously been massive changes off the pitch for Newcastle United in these past couple of month and Eddie Howe is now in charge, BUT for a predictions model like this, it is all based on stats and what has happened in previous matches, plus difficulty of game left to play etc.

So that win over Burnley would have statistically been seen as almost certainly Newcastle’s best chance of winning a match out of all 24 PL games then remaining. So the chances of Newcastle United going down, according to this stats model, has only reduced from 76% to 68% after that first NUFC victory of the season.

As for the bookies, they HAVE factored in these others things such as the takeover and Eddie Howe replacing Steve Bruce, when it comes to the relegation odds.

That win against Burnley was seen as essential by everybody, including the bookies, if Newcastle United were going to look likely survivors.

With fifteen PL games gone and that one win, only ten points from a possible forty five but only three points off safety now, they (various bookies and most common prices) currently see the relegation likelihood as 1/5 Norwich, 5/6 Newcastle United, 5/6 Watford,  Burnley 10/11, Leeds 5/1, Brentford 6/1, Southampton 9/1, Palace 9/1, Everton 14/1, Villa 25/1, Wolves 25/1, Brighton 35/1.

The bookies seeing this developing very much into a four way fight at the moment, with only one of Norwich, Newcastle, Watford and Burnley surviving.

This is how the Premier League table looks, ahead of this weekend’s action:

A massive match to start off the weekend, as on Friday night it is Brentford v Watford.

Whilst I think there is still a chance of Brentford ending up in a season-long relegation battle, I definitely think that Watford winning this match would be a big negative. Suddenly you have the bottom three finding themselves six points adrift of safety.

Norwich are home to Man Utd this weekend, whilst Burnley host West Ham. So hopefully we won’t see any nasty surprises in those two matches.


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