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Opinion

This is how bottom of Premier League could look when we get to January transfer window

4 weeks ago
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OK, yes, right now, we can’t dance and sing as it’s an uncertain time with no Newcastle United manager, Director of Football or Managing Director.

With the team sitting second bottom and the club seemingly rudderless, like a huge ship at sea drifting with no engines and a defunct helm.

However, is it really SO bad?

Is relegation battle certain? What are the fixtures, form and run of fixtures telling us?

We are told Newcastle United are right in it with five of the top eight teams before Christmas and we’ll struggle to get eight points. I’m not so sure, so I took a closer look.

Newcastle’s run till Transfer Window (with current table position in brackets):

Brighton (8); Brentford (12); Arsenal (6); Norwich (20); Burnley (18); Leicester (11); Liverpool (2); Man City (3); Man United (5); Everton (10) and then first game of 2022, Southampton (14).

On recent form, Newcastle United have 0 Wins, 2 Draws and 3 Losses in the last 5.

Based on that recent form, likelihood of points probably is that disappointing and alarming 8 points.

However, that form was with poor management and injuries in key position, plus up against Chelsea (1), Palace (13th and on a good run), Spurs (9), Wolves (7) and Watford (16). So a good manager / tactics and players back, should mean better form, so better results.

The players we have are the same as last year and we should consider how we did against those teams when motivated…. (like if we had a new passionate manager) and a full squad.

Last year’s results against these clubs (home result against them first): Brighton (L, L); Brentford (L in cup); Arsenal (L, L); Norwich (N/A); Burnley (W, W); Leicester (L, W); Liverpool (D, D); Man City (L, L); Man United (L, L); Everton (W, W) and then first game 2022 Southampton (W, L).

Possible points tally on last year’s result…. Brighton (L) + Brentford (L) + Arsenal (L) + Norwich (W) + Burnley (W) + Leicester (D) + Liverpool (D) + Man C (L) + Everton (W) + Southampton (W) = 14 points. Plus 4 so far… 18 points.

Now let’s be realistic…. Likely to lose to Brighton, Brentford, Arsenal, Liverpool, and draw with Leicester, as early days of any new manager, so really a possible is 13 points, plus current 4 = 17 points.

Looking at other teams, doing similar analysis, I would not be surprised if the bottom of the table was as follows when we reach the January transfer window:

Place / Team / Points

14 Villa 19

15 Leeds 17

16 Newcastle 17

17 Southampton 16

18 Burnley 16

19 Watford 14

20 Norwich 4

Now let’s be honest, how often has anyone got all the results right?

I certainly haven’t, but the point of this article is that all is not lost.

Sure a couple of the teams will do better, a couple will do worse.

If we do a little worse, and only two or three of the other teams do better, then we are still not far from safety with nearly half the season to go.

With a transfer window and hopefully a better coach than we have had for the start of his season.

So DON’T WORRY, Be Happy! (cue music please)

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