Newsletter

Get your daily update and weekly newsletter by signing up today!

News

Sky Sports expert – Arsenal flakiness, lack of trust, backing Newcastle United to get first win

2 months ago
Share

The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some excellent analysis and commentary on what is currently happening at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters / issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on Newcastle’s game against Arsenal.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Arsenal v Newcastle game.

With the home side his analysis is: ‘I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Arteta’s boys in patches this season – the first halves vs Aston Villa and Leicester were top-four performances. However, this is a young side – the youngest average starting XI in the Premier League. Flakiness is expected.’ This has been evidenced by a 2-0 defeat to Brentford, plus a 2-2 home draw with Palace where Arsenal only got a point due to a 95th minute goal. Whilst the Gunners have had significant fortune on their side when getting 1-0 wins against bottom five sides Watford, Norwich and Burnley.

As for the visitors, the Sky Sports expert believes that ‘Newcastle to win their first game this season is worth a swing.’

When looking to back up this viewpoint, the Sky Sports man says:

‘Before Eddie Howe took over, Newcastle over the last five games had been averaging just 6.5 shots per 90 minutes, an expected goals figure of 0.57 and four corners. That rocketed to 23 shots, a 1.76 expected goals recording and eight corners in the 3-3 with Brentford, who have been one of the most efficient defences in the Premier League this season. Howe likes his team to play progressively and although it’s early days to be coming to sweeping conclusions, it was an encouraging start.’

In the top half of the table only one team has conceded more goals than Arsenal, whilst with Newcastle United, I believe that Steve Bruce made this NUFC team / squad look far worse than they are in reality. His ultra negative tactics and often dubious team set up, so often lending a helping hand to the opposition, not to mention far too little time spent on the training pitch.

A number of Newcastle players have already came out and said just how much better and more intensive training has been since Eddie Howe took over, NUFC players stating that fitness levels had dropped under Steve Bruce, with the ‘plan’ of trying to defend for the vast majority of each match contributing to those fitness levels not being what they could / should be.

As the Sky Sports expert points out, Newcastle’s attacking threat was on a totally different level last week against Brentford compared to what had been the case previously, plus, Brentford went into that match with only Southampton of the teams in the bottom half of the table having conceded less goals.

Sky Sports – Betting expert ‘Jones Knows’ predicts what will happen with Arsenal v Newcastle:

That was a huge reality check for Arsenal at Liverpool last weekend.

A 4-0 drubbing identified just how far away Mikel Arteta’s side are from the top three teams in the Premier League. They are back in calmer waters on Saturday with a visit from Newcastle and the market expects them to win this quite comfortably, with 4/9 with Sky Bet on offer for a home win.

That is a price fraught with danger though, especially for those plotting an accumulator and getting involved with the early game.

I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Arteta’s boys in patches this season – the first halves vs Aston Villa and Leicester were top-four performances. However, this is a young side – the youngest average starting XI in the Premier League. Flakiness is expected.

Naturally, that will bring inconsistent results.

I can’t trust them in this game against a team that looked refreshed and motivated against Brentford and one that possess genuine quality in the final third with Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin. I think the 11/2 with Sky Bet for Newcastle to win their first game this season is worth a swing.

Before Eddie Howe took over, Newcastle over the last five games had been averaging just 6.5 shots per 90 minutes, an expected goals figure of 0.57 and four corners. That rocketed to 23 shots, a 1.76 expected goals recording and eight corners in the 3-3 with Brentford, who have been one of the most efficient defences in the Premier League this season. Howe likes his team to play progressively and although it’s early days to be coming to sweeping conclusions, it was an encouraging start.

I wouldn’t put people off taking Newcastle on the double chance (to win or draw) at 15/8 with Sky Bet but their defensive record is appalling so I’ve got trust issues there. I’d rather head to the shots and corners market for a spot of value.

Arsenal have conceded nearly six corners per 90 minutes this season, including four or more in 10 of their 12 Premier League fixtures this season. With Howe’s men likely to attack, the 11/8 for them to win five or more corners looks the way to go.

SCORE PREDICTION: Arsenal 1 Newcastle 2

BETTING ANGLE: Newcastle to win five or more corners (11/8 with Sky Bet)’

Share

If you would like to feature on The Mag, submit your article to [email protected]

Have your say

© 2022 The Mag. All Rights Reserved. Design & Build by Mediaworks