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Newcastle United now rated only 38% chance of beating relegation ahead of Arsenal match

2 days ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the relegation fight this season and Saturday’s match against Arsenal.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United against Arsenal.

Their computer model gives Arsenal a 57% chance of a win, it is 23% for a draw and a 19% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the Premier League title, they have the probability of Man City a 44% chance, Liverpool 28%, 27% Chelsea and the rest nowhere.

This is how the Premier League table looks on Wednesday morning ahead of this weekend’s matches, including Arsenal v Newcastle:

Of more interest / pressing concern we can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation for Newcastle United and their rivals at this stage of the season…:

76% Norwich

62% Newcastle United

35% Watford

35% Burnley

20% Leeds

16% Brentford

14% Southampton

11% Aston Villa

10% Everton

6% Leicester

5% Crystal Palace

4% Wolves

3% Brighton

2% Tottenham

There have obviously been massive changes off the pitch for Newcastle United in these past six weeks and Eddie Howe is now in charge, BUT for a predictions model like this, it is all based on stats and what has happened in previous matches, plus difficulty of game left to play etc.

So a change of ownership and replacement of Steve Bruce with a proper manager, doesn’t change their probability of Newcastle United winning or not, from what was the case before the new owners and Eddie Howe came in.

As for the bookies though, they HAVE factored in the takeover and Eddie Howe replacing Steve Bruce, when it comes to the relegation odds.

Despite still thirteen games gone and no wins, only six points from a possible thirty six and five points off safety now, they (various bookies and most common prices) currently see the relegation likelihood as 1/5 Norwich, 10/11 Watford, 10/11 Newcastle United,  Burnley 11/10, Leeds 7/2, Brentford 4/1, Aston Villa 7/1, Southampton 9/1, Palace 12/1, Everton 16/1, Everton 25/1, Wolves 25/1.

Even though they have won their last two PL matches, Norwich (1/5) still seen as relegation certainties by the bookies.

However, for Newcastle United, they are still grouped alongside the likes of Burnley and Watford at around the same price (10/11, 11/10) and probability of relegation / survival, a toss of the coin as opposed to the computer model only giving a 38% chance of NUFC surviving. The new NUFC ownership and head coach skewing the odds a bit in terms of added hope, Watford now seven points ahead and have just hammered Man Utd 4-1.

Since Steve Bruce left, Newcastle have only lost one of four games and that was to the league leaders, but a first win is badly needed to start the recovery properly.

Where better than Arsenal to get it, a place where Newcastle have such a dismal Premier League record these past couple of decades!


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