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Newcastle United now rated only 30% chance of beating relegation ahead of Norwich match

2 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the relegation fight this season and Tuesday’s match against Norwich.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including Newcastle United against Norwich.

Their computer model gives Norwich a 26% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 48% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the Premier League title, they have the probability of Man City a 47% chance, Liverpool 31%, 22% Chelsea and the rest nowhere.

Of more interest / pressing concern we can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation for Newcastle United and their rivals at this stage of the season…:

75% Norwich

70% Newcastle United

37% Watford

34% Burnley

20% Leeds

14% Southampton

12% Everton

11% Brentford

8% Aston Villa

7% Crystal Palace

4% Wolves

4% Leicester

3% Brighton

2% Tottenham

There have obviously been massive changes off the pitch for Newcastle United in these past six weeks and Eddie Howe is now in charge and preparing to sit in the home dugout at St James Park for the first time, BUT for a predictions model like this, it is all based on stats and what has happened in previous matches, plus difficulty of game left to play etc.

So a change of ownership and replacement of Steve Bruce with a proper manager, doesn’t change their probability of Newcastle United winning or not, from what was the case before the new owners and Eddie Howe came in.

As for the bookies though, they HAVE factored in the takeover and Eddie Howe replacing Steve Bruce, when it comes to the relegation odds.

Despite still fourteen games (all competitions) gone and no wins, only six points from a possible thirty nine and six points off safety now, they (various bookies and most common prices) currently see the relegation likelihood as 1/6 Norwich, 4/6 Newcastle United, 10/11 Watford,  Burnley 1/1, Leeds 4/1, Brentford 6/1, Southampton 8/1, Everton 10/1, Palace 11/1, Villa 14/1, Brighton 25/1, Wolves 25/1.

Even though they have picked up seven points from their last three PL matches, Norwich (1/6) still seen as relegation certainties by the bookies.

However, for Newcastle United, they are still not far behind the likes of Watford and Burnley when priced in the relegation battle, 4/6 compared to 10/11 and 1/1.

A win against Norwich tonight would put NUFC in a better light and then if following that up with a victory over Burnley on Saturday…

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though, Head Coach, players and fans need total focus on this Norwich battle.


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