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FiveThirtyEight probability model rates chances of Newcastle beating Brentford and relegation

2 weeks ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Brentford.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United against Brentford.

Their computer model gives Brentford a 38% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 36% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability of Man City a 49% chance, Liverpool 27%, 22% Chelsea and the rest nowhere.

This is how the Premier League table looks on Thursday morning ahead of this weekend’s matches:

Premier League Table 8 November 2021

Of more interest / pressing concern we can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation for Newcastle United and their rivals at this stage of the season…:

79% Norwich

62% Newcastle United

51% Watford

30% Burnley

15% Aston Villa

14% Leeds

12% Brentford

9% Southampton

8% Everton

6% Wolves

5% Crystal Palace

There have obviously been massive changes off the pitch for Newcastle United in these past six weeks and Eddie Howe is now in charge, BUT for a predictions model like this, it is all based on stats and what has happened in previous matches, plus difficulty of game left to play etc.

So a change of ownership and replacement of Steve Bruce with a proper manager, doesn’t change their probability of Newcastle United winning or not, from what was the case before the new owners and Eddie Howe came in.

As for the bookies though, they HAVE factored in the takeover and Eddie Howe replacing Steve Bruce, when it comes to the relegation odds.

Despite still twelve games gone and no wins, only five points from a possible thirty three and five points off safety now, they (various bookies and most common prices) currently see the relegation likelihood as 1/8 Norwich, 4/7 Watford, 11/10 Burnley, 6/5 Newcastle United,  Brentford 4/1, Aston Villa 5/1, Leeds 6/1, Southampton 9/1, Palace 14/1, Wolves 16/1.

Obviously, Newcastle still have to do it on the pitch and after eleven games without a win this season including only four points from a possible thirty in the Premier League. However, it is significant for the bookies to see NUFC as (even if only very minutely) more likely to stay up than go down, so 6/5 meaning a 6 in 11 chance of staying up and 5 in 11 chance of going down.

This Brentford game does feel pivotal and so important for Newcastle United, a win would see real confidence from both outsiders and all associated with NUFC, that Eddie Howe can start climbing away from trouble. However, anything but a Newcastle victory would see NUFC become odds on for the drop and a massive blow for fans and management. Brentford arrive on the back of four defeats in a row and the last two of those were against Burnley and Norwich, so with the visitors also having a hefty injury list and Eddie Howe having a near full squad to choose from, this has to be a win, please.


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