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Super Computer model rates chances of Newcastle United beating relegation and Spurs

2 days ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Thursday’s match against Spurs.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United hosting Spurs.

Their computer model gives Spurs a 45% chance of a win, it is 24% for a draw and a 31% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City a 50% chance, Liverpool 26%, 18% Chelsea and Man Utd 5%.

For Newcastle United, it is a less than 1% chance of winning the Premier League and also NUFC given a less than 1% possibility of finishing top four (for this season anyway!!!).

This is how the Premier League table looks on Thursday morning ahead of this weekend’s matches:

Of more interest (relevance!) we can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation for Newcastle United and their rivals at this early stage of the season…:

70% Norwich

47% Watford

45% Burnley

43% Newcastle United

23% Southampton

19% Crystal Palace

15% Leeds

8% Wolves

7% Leicester

6% Brentford

4% Aston Villa

3% West Ham

There have obviously been massive changes off the pitch for Newcastle United in this past week BUT for a predictions model like this, it is all based on stats and what has happened in previous matches, plus difficulty of game left to play etc. So a change of ownership doesn’t change their probability of Newcastle United winning or not, from what was the case before the new owners came in.

It also doesn’t of course factor in things like Newcastle United having their first sold out crowd at St James Park in 29 months (not since Rafa’s last home match v Liverpool has SJP been full of paying customers), or the lift it will give if Steve Bruce has been removed (please) before this game.

As for the bookies though, they HAVE factored in the takeover when it comes to the relegation odds. After losing at Wolves in the last match, Newcastle became second favourites at around 8/11 to go down, only Norwich seen as more likely for the drop.

Now they (various bookies and most common prices) currently see the relegation likelihood as 1/5 Norwich, 4/6 Watford, 4/5 Burnley, 2/1 Newcastle United, 11/4 Palace, 7/2 Southampton, Leeds 8/1, Wolves 10/1, Brentford 10/1

Obviously, Newcastle still have to do it on the pitch and after eight games without a win this season including only three points from twenty one in the Premier League, however, it is a significant move for the bookies now to see NUFC as only a one in three (2/1) chance to go down, rather than far more likely to go down than stay up (8/11).

An actual win against Spurs on Sunday would see an even more dramatic change, here’s hoping that this game proves to be the first step / springboard towards better times ahead.


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