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Super Computer rated Newcastle United chance of beating Watford and relegation probability

3 weeks ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and today’s match against Watford.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, which includes this Newcastle United game at Watford.

Their computer model gives Watford a 38% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 35% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentages rounded up or down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City a 37% chance, 21% Chelsea, Liverpool 29%, Man Utd 10% and everybody else nowhere.

For Newcastle United, it is somewhere less than a 1% chance of winning the Premier League and indeed, a less than 1% possibility of finishing top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation…:

65% Norwich

40% Newcastle United

39% Watford

39% Burnley

24% Brentford

22% Crystal Palace

19% Southampton

17% Leeds

15% Wolves

15% Brentford

6% Aston Villa

6% Leicester

4% Arsenal

4% Everton

3% Brighton

3% Tottenham

It is still early days…but Newcastle United are now rated above as the second most likely to be relegated, with a probability of 40% compared to Watford’s 39%. Defeat today for NUFC would see them already seven points behind Watford after only six PL games, as for what the relegation probability would be then…


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