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Super Computer rated Newcastle United chance of beating Leeds and relegation probability

1 month ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Friday’s match against Leeds.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, which includes this Newcastle United game against Leeds.

Their computer model gives Leeds a 39% chance of a win, it is 25% for a draw and a 37% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentages rounded up or down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City a 48% chance, 15% Chelsea, Liverpool 26%, Man Utd 7% and Tottenham 1%.

For Newcastle United, it is somewhere less than a 1% chance of winning the Premier League and indeed, a less than 1% possibility of finishing top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation…:

53% Norwich

48% Watford

40% Newcastle United

35% Burnley

24% Brentford

23% Southampton

20% Crystal Palace

16% Leeds

10% Wolves

10% Aston Villa

6% Arsenal

4% Brighton

It is still early days…but Newcastle United need to get some points on the board early doors, settle those nerves.


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