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Newcastle United probability of relegation reaches tipping point on prediction model

1 week ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the rest of this season and Saturday’s match against Manchester United.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, which includes this Newcastle United game at Old Trafford.

Their computer model gives Man Utd a 72% chance of a win, it is 17% for a draw and a 11% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentages rounded up or down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City a 45% chance, Liverpool 21%, 18% Chelsea, Man Utd 8% and Tottenham 4%.

For Newcastle United, it is a less than 1% chance of winning the Premier League and already NUFC given a less than 1% possibility of finishing top four.

Of more interest (relevance!) we can also see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation for Newcastle United and their rivals at this early stage of the season…:

48% Norwich

39% Watford

35% Crystal Palace

33% Burnley

37% Newcastle United

22% Southampton

21% Brentford

16% Wolves

13% Leeds

11% Aston Villa

7% Arsenal

6% Brighton

It is still very early days but Newcastle United certainly showing very worrying signs of what could lie ahead, conceding goals for ‘fun’ and Steve Bruce seemingly clueless as to how to deal with that, whilst at the other end we already have Callum Wilson injured after the Southampton game and waiting to see how his condition is, everything crossed that it isn’t serious.

Meanwhile, as you can see above, the computer prediction model already having now moved Newcastle United into the trio seen as most likely to be relegated and with this Man Utd match up next, very difficult to see the situation as anything but even worse after the coming weekend’s action. Unless a very surprising result, NUFC set to drop into the bottom three with one point from twelve and then a very difficult home game with Leeds up next, Bielsa’s team beating Newcastle home and away last season.

As for the bookies, how they (various bookies and most common prices) currently see the relegation likelihood is 4/6 Norwich, 11/10 Watford,11/10 Crystal Palace, 11/8 Burnley, 6/4 Newcastle United, 3/1 Brentford, 7/2 Southampton.

Once again, after this coming weekend’s matches, realistically those odds are going to end up looking even worse for NUFC.


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