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Two Newcastle United revenue streams can raise £20m-£30m to finance Joe Willock deal

5 months ago
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I think fair to say that Newcastle United fans would like to see Joe Willock signed in a permanent deal this summer.

Goalscoring midfielders are invaluable and that is appreciated nowhere more so than at Newcastle United.

The days of Rob Lee and Gary Speed scoring regularly are long gone.

Instead Newcastle have…

Jonjo Shelvey with 9 goals in 114 Premier League appearances for NUFC.

Sean Longstaff with 2 goals in 51 Premier League appearances for NUFC.

Isaac Hayden with 3 goals in 104 Premier League appearances for NUFC.

Jeff Hendrick with 11 goals in 143 Premier League appearances for NUFC (and Burnley).

As for Joe Willock, the treatment of him by Steve Bruce has been as puzzling as the mystery as to why Newcastle United didn’t agree a purchase price clause as part of the loan deal with Arsenal.

Steve Bruce froze Joe Willock out of the starting eleven for seven weeks, until even he couldn’t withstand public opinion, returning him to the team that faced Leicester on Friday night.

The Joe Willock stats now show five goals, despite only eight Premier League starts and three sub appearances.

A total of 715 minutes played at an average of a Joe Willock goal every 143 minutes.

Despite the incompetence of not insisting on a buying price clause, that is still no excuse for Newcastle not going all out to buy the midfielder this summer.

Ambition needs to be shown.

Far too many Newcastle United fans have such low self-esteem as football fans these days, both on behalf of themselves as individuals and the club / fanbase overall. These 14 years of Mike Ashley eroding their belief in what NUFC could and should be.

I dread to think of Steve Bruce still here next season BUT even if that is the case, if we can get Joe Willock in alongside the likes of Wilson, ASM and Almiron, we could still be in business despite the Head Coach’s presence.

What about paying for Joe Willock I hear you say?

Well, I accept that in the absence of any takeover, Mike Ashley would not be showing any ambition. However, I do think that  two Newcastle United revenue streams / relatively surprising windfall, can raise £20m-£30m to finance a Joe Willock deal.

Until very recently, Newcastle United were looking nailed on for fourth bottom at best. Now we have this Premier League table on Monday morning:

I think even Steve Bruce could and should be capable of getting wins against Sheffield United and Fulham, both will be relegated clubs when Newcastle play them (unless a Scott Parker miracle happens). That would give Newcastle 45 points and I’m pretty confident should ensure 13th place.

If you then look at this table from Swiss Ramble showing the merit payments (depending on where you finish in the table) for the 2019/20 season:

With the ‘big six’ forcing through the change whereby overseas cash is also in part shared depending on league position, it has made it even more lucrative to finish as high as possible.

Each Premier League place means an extra £3.2m (this is on top of the equal shares part of the deals and the share out depending on how often you are on Live TV etc).

I think fair to assume that Mike Ashley budgets each season for a 17th place finish and that was indeed what looked nailed on only a few weeks ago, so if NUFC can finish 13th, that would add an extra £12.8m to the Newcastle United coffers compared to if they had finished 17th.

The second revenue stream / windfall is Adam Armstrong.

His rise has been phenomenal and this season his game and goalscoring ability have gone through the roof, despite playing for 15th in the Championship Blackburn.

Armstrong has only one year left on his Blackburn contract and with Premier League clubs hovering, manager Tony Mowbray clearly accepts the inevitable (see below) that his star player will be playing Premier League football next season.

Newcastle United have a reported 40% sell-on clause and this will generate significant NUFC funds when Armstrong is sold this summer. On top of that potential £12.8m league placings bonus money, a £20m Armstrong sale would generate £8m for Newcastle, a £25m sale would be £10m to NUFC, then £30m would be £12m for the Magpies.

Together with the £12.8m, that would equal somewhere between £22.8m and £26.8m if Adam Armstrong was sold for between £20m and £30m.

If you are sceptical that £20m+ won’t be paid for the former Newcastle striker, I would say think again.

Ivan Toney topped the Championship scorers with 31 goals, then Adam Armstrong 28 goals, the previous record in the Championship era had been 30 goals.

The past two seasons had seen the following strikers top scoring in the Championship in 2018/19 and 2019/20:

Aleksandar Mitrovic 26 goals in 2019/20 (Fulham had bought him for £22m from Newcastle in 2018, potentially rising to £27m)

Ollie Watkins 25 goals in 2019/20 (Villa bought him in summer 2020 for £28m potentially rising to £33m)

Teemu Pukki 29 goals in 2018/19 (a cracking free agent signing back in 2018 for Norwich after he’d scored for fun in the Danish league)

Tammy Abraham 25 goals in 2018/19 (on loan for Villa and if Chelsea sold him he would be £30m+)

Neil Maupay 25 goals in 2018/19 (Brighton buying him for £20m back in summer 2019)

When you see the profiles of the top Championship scorers of these previous two seasons, I think it is inconceivable that Adam Armstrong (and Ivan Toney) wouldn’t be rated at £20m+ when it comes to a sale price this summer.

Tony Mowbray talking about Premier League clubs looking to buy Adam Armstrong this summer:

“They’re not doing their job if they’re not looking at Adam Armstrong.

“That’s out of my control.

“For Adam’s sake, let’s hope the phone rings and someone offers us a ridiculous amount of money, we shake him by the hand and we say go and bang in loads of goals in the Premier League and we’ll use some of that money in the team and can find another striker who can bang loads of goals in.

“That’s football, that’s happened since the game started.

“He’s shown what a talent he is, he could have had five today [scored ‘only’ the three in a 5-2 win over Birmingham on Saturday], my analyst is saying the first one wasn’t offside, but there you go.

“There are a few players out there at the end who won’t be here next season but that’s okay, every team has to evolve and grow and develop and young players will get more experience and see whether they can hit the mark and take us where we want to go.”

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