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FiveThirtyEight probability model rates chances of Newcastle United beating Sheffield United

3 years ago

Interesting look at the probability of Newcastle United winning on Wednesday night against Sheffield United.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United hosting Sheffield United.

Their computer model gives Sheffield United a 27% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 47% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

So Newcastle given just under a one in two chance of winning tonight.

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Wednesday morning.

Brighton’s dramatic 3-2 win over Manchester City on Tuesday night means that Steve Bruce and his Newcastle team drop to seventeenth, only kept out of the relegation places by those three woeful teams this season.

As things stand, Newcastle could potentially finish as high as thirteenth if beating both Sheffield United and Fulham, plus all the other results going their way.

In reality, I suppose finishing anywhere other than fourth bottom would be a relief.

With Manchester City already crowned champions and the relegation issues long sorted, the only major situation is who finishes in the Champions League places.

Man City and Man Utd have filled two of the places with now a two from three scenario, a massive result for Chelsea last night as they struggled to a 2-1 win over Leicester.

From the FiveThirtyEight prediction model perspective they rate the following percentage possibilities of top four being:

86% Chelsea

73% Liverpool

40% Leicester


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