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FiveThirtyEight model rates chances of beating Leicester and Newcastle United relegation

5 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Friday’s match against Leicester City.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United visiting Leicester.

Their computer model gives Leicester a 70% chance of a win, it is 20% for a draw and a 10% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

So Newcastle given only a one in ten chance of winning tonight.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation with only two weeks remaining of the season:

Relegated Sheff Utd

99% West Brom

96% Fulham

3% Newcastle United

1% Burnley

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Friday morning.

Only one point for Fulham from their last six matches has gifted safety to Newcastle United.

A win for Newcastle at Leicester would all but mathematically make Steve Bruce and his team safe, as NUFC would be 12 points ahead with Fulham having only four games to play.

However, failure for Bruce and Newcastle tonight, would then take us to Monday night and Fulham at home to Burnley.

A win for Scott Parker’s team in that game, would leave them knowing that a win at Southampton in their next match would take them to within three points of Newcastle (assuming Man City win at St James Park), with NUFC having to go to Craven Cottage on the final day of the season.

From this FiveThirtyEight prediction model perspective.

Sheffield United already down, West Brom (99% certainties) on the brink, whilst Fulham (96%) heading the same way. Newcastle still a 3% chance of relegation and Burnley 1%.

The bookies odds on relegation back up how unlikely this is to happen, their odds to go down are 1/500 West Brom, 1/66 Fulham, 25/1 Newcastle and 40/1 Burnley.

Hopefully any lasting worries will disappear tonight, if Newcastle can win for the third time in their last four visits.


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