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FiveThirtyEight model rates chances of beating Arsenal and Newcastle United relegation

6 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against Arsenal.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United hosting Arsenal.

Their computer model gives Arsenal a 52% chance of a win, it is 25% for a draw and a 23% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

So despite only winning two of their last seven Premier League matches, Arsenal rated clear 52% favourites of being victorious, more than twice as likely as 23% Newcastle

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation with only three weeks remaining of the season:

Relegated Sheff Utd

99% West Brom

95% Fulham

2% Newcastle United

1% Brighton

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Saturday morning.

Eight points in four games for Newcastle and Fulham finding it impossible to find a single win at the most crucial time of the season, appear to have pretty much settled things.

Certainly from this FiveThirtyEight prediction model perspective.

Sheffield United already down, West Brom (99% certainties) on the brink, whilst Fulham (95%) heading the same way.

Fulham are at Chelsea on Saturday at 5.30pm and whilst the home side do of course have a potential Champions League final to look forward to if they hold their nerve against Real Madrid, they can’t relax when it comes to league position, if they want to ensure they qualify for next season’s Champions League regardless. West Ham only three points behind in fifth, then Liverpool a further point adrift.

After Chelsea, Fulham then play Burnley (Home), Southampton (Away) and Man Utd (Away), before that final fixture at home to Newcastle.

Newcastle still seen as a 2% possibility to go down but for Fulham to have even the remotest of chances of catching NUFC, you would think they’d have to beat Burnley and Southampton, plus get something from either the Chelsea or Man Utd matches.

The bookies odds on relegation back up how unlikely this is to happen, their odds to go down are 1/200 West Brom, 1/16 Fulham, 20/1 Newcastle, 25/1 Brighton and 25/1 Burnley.

Whatever happens though with Fulham, it would be a big lift if Newcastle United put in some convincing performances in these final five games.


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