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Super Computer model rates chances of beating West Ham and Newcastle United relegation

5 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against West Ham.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United hosting West Ham.

Their computer model gives Burnley a 51% chance of a win, it is 24% for a draw and a 25% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

So West Ham rated a fraction over twice as likely to win as Newcastle United.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation with only five weeks remaining of the season:

99% Sheff Utd

97% West Brom

81% Fulham

15% Newcastle United

5% Burnley

1% Brighton

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Friday morning.


Last weekend’s results had a massive impact on the relegation prediction scenario.

Fulham now six points off safety and having played a game more, with an 81% probability of going down, whilst Newcastle United rated only a 15% chance to be relegated.

Sheffield United long gone and despite West Brom winning their last two games, still rated 97% likely to be sent down.

I guess the most optimistic Fulham fans will be dreaming of a similar turn around weekend as last time BUT in their favour.

If Newcastle did lose to West Ham on Saturday, Fulham would once again close to within three points of NUFC if winning at Arsenal on Sunday, with a better goal difference and the knowledge of that final day Fulham v Newcastle fixture to come.

However, if Steve Bruce’s team did beat West Ham, then surely it would be immaterial what Fulham did, as difficult to see them coming back from falling nine points behind Newcastle United.


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