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Super Computer model rates chances of beating Burnley and Newcastle United relegation

6 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against Burnley.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United visiting Burnley.

Their computer model gives Burnley a 41% chance of a win, it is 28% for a draw and a 31% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

This reflects a similar story at the bookies, with their odds giving Newcastle United a 5/2 outsiders chance of winning, with Burnley 7/5 favourites.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation with only six weeks remaining of the season:

99% Sheff Utd

98% West Brom

62% Fulham

34% Newcastle United

4% Burnley

1% Brighton

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Friday morning.

Last weekend’s  results have to a decent degree swung things in favour of Newcastle United.

The dramatic collapse for Fulham from 1-0 up to then concede three in the final twelve minutes, means that instead of going into this weekend above Newcastle on goal difference, instead they are three points behind.

That leading them to be now seen as almost twice as likely (62%) to be relegated as Newcastle (34%)

The way fixtures have fallen this weekend, could prove very good or very bad for NUFC.

If Fulham win at home to Wolves tonight, all the pressure will be piled on Steve Bruce and his team, as they will be in the bottom three when facing Burnley on Sunday.

However, if Fulham get anything other than a win, Newcastle will be far more relaxed. two or three points above relegation with two games in hand.

The one factor that always goes against Newcastle though in these predictions for relegation, is that the final day sees them travelling to Fulham. So whilst Fulham are no more than three points adrift of Newcastle, they will always be seen as real possibilities of overtaking NUFC on what could be a dramatic / horrific last day of the season.


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