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Premier League relegation odds – The weekend when picture became whole lot clearer

5 months ago

Very interesting to see how the Premier League relegation odds are looking after the weekend’s action.

Clubs going into the weekend with only six or seven matches respectively remaining to decide which division they will be playing in next season.

Only 34 days time now until Newcastle United fans will know their fate for sure after the game at Craven Cottage, though the events of the weekend have suggested we could know well before then.

Going into this weekend, Fulham were third bottom on 26 points, Newcastle United fourth bottom on 32 points, then Burnley with 33 points and Brighton also on 33 but a better goal difference.

A dramatic weekend of football has then followed for those at the sharp end in the relegation fight.

Newcastle United playing well in the first half on Saturday and then gifted two goals and a man advantage by West Ham, only for Steve Bruce to bizarrely go ultra defensive in the second half against 10 men. Gifting the Hammers total control and the visitors grabbing two goals to equalise and wasting other chances. Steve Bruce’s bacon rescued late on by Joe Willock’s excellent headed finish from an equally good Ritchie cross.

Those three points meant Newcastle went nine points clear of Fulham and the relegation zone.

Attention switched to Sunday and Fulham put in a very good tight performance, very few chances in the game but when Maja put them in front against Arsenal with half an hour to go, things looked on the up at last for Scott Parker.

However, a controversial equaliser in the seventh minute of added time once again crashed Fulham’s hopes, the Arsenal goal allowed to stand despite Holding in an offside position and in old money at least, definitely interfering with play.

Later on Sunday saw Burnley drawing 1-1 at Old Trafford, only for Man Utd to score two late goals.

Brighton visit Chelsea on Tuesday night and West Brom visit Leicester on Thurday to complete the relegation fight action for this round of Premier League matches.

However, regardless of that, we now have a much clearer picture of how the bookies and punters view the relegation picture.

The updated Premier League relegation odds from Betfred on Monday morning (in brackets what the odds were before this weekend’s action):

Relegated – Sheffield United

1/80 (1/100) West Brom

1/12 (1/5) Fulham

8/1 (10/1) Burnley

14/1 (4/1) Newcastle United

33/1 (33/1) Brighton

This is the updated Premier League table, how it looks now on Monday morning after Newcastle 3 West Ham 2 and Arsenal 1 Fulham 1:

If Fulham had held on, that would have kept them ‘only’ six points adrift of Newcastle United, instead though that gap is eight points.

You would then have still had the worry / potential of the fact Fulham still have the likes of Burnley (H) and Southampton (A) to play, as well as of course Newcastle at Craven Cottage on the final day.

Surely even Steve Bruce can’t lose it from here…

As you can see above, Fulham now 1/12 nailed on to go down, whilst Burnley at 8/1 now seen as the most in danger if Fulham (or West Brom) somehow escape.

I’m guessing those Fulham fans dreaming of a lifeline still, will be hoping that by the time they play Burnley at Craven Cottage in their first fixture in May, they will still be no more than six points behind Sean Dyche’s team.

These are all the remaining matches for the four clubs competing for that final relegation place:

Fulham – Chelsea (A), Burnley (H), Southampton (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H)

Brighton – Chelsea (A), Sheff Utd (A), Leeds (H), Wolves (A), West Ham (H), Man City (H), Arsenal (A)

Newcastle United – Liverpool (A), Arsenal (H), Leicester (A), Man City (H), Sheff Utd (H), Fulham (A)

Burnley – Wolves (A), West Ham (H), Fulham (A), Leeds (H), Liverpool (H), Sheffield United (A)


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