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FiveThirtyEight predicts Newcastle United v Tottenham and likelihood of relegation

6 days ago

An interesting overview of Newcastle United for the relegation fight and today’s match against Tottenham.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including Newcastle United at home to Tottenham.

Their computer model gives Tottenham a 54% chance of a win, it is 25% for a draw and a 21% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as NUFC now have only nine games of the season remaining:

99% Sheff Utd

98% West Brom

48% Newcastle United

48% Fulham

3% Burnley

1% Brighton

1% Southampton

This is how the actual Premier League table currently looks on Sunday morning.

West Brom’s shock 5-2 win at Chelsea has changed their relegation probability from greater than 99% to ‘only’ 98%.

It is still obviously massively unlikely that the Baggies have any real chance of escaping but when last relegated in 2017/18, Darren Moore got the job after Alan Pardew (one PL win in over four months) was very belatedly sacked, with six games to go. Almost pulling off the impossible as he picked up eleven points in five games, with wins over Man Utd, Newcastle and Tottenham.

West Brom are seven points off safety / Newcastle but interesting if they win their next game home to Southampton.

However, using the computer modelling system, it is clear that what it predicts is a straight fight between Newcastle United and Fulham to be relegated alongside West Brom and Sheffield United.

Both clubs rated a 48% chance to go down, the likes of Brighton, Southampton and Burnley now seen as having minimal, if any, chance now of getting in trouble.

Today could see a significant change on that prediction, with Newcastle home to Tottenham, before Fulham play at Villa.

If either relegation struggler gets a win and the other doesn’t, that would be a game changer I think.

Whereas as things stand, a continuation of the current position just makes that final day showdown at Craven Cottage loom ever larger. Sky Sports would love Fulham v Newcastle fighting it out for survival on the final day but for fans that just doesn’t bear thinking about.

Recent form has seen Newcastle United the only PL club to win none of their last six games, only picking up three points via three draws, as Steve Bruce set his team out so negatively against the likes of West Brom. Fulham have won two and drawn one of their last six, so with seven points to Newcastle’s three, Steve Bruce needs to change the direction this is heading…


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