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FiveThirtyEight model rates chances of beating Liverpool and Newcastle United relegation

5 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Liverpool.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United at Liverpool.

Their computer model gives Liverpool a 80% chance of a win, it is 14% for a draw and a 6% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

So despite losing six of their last seven Premier League matches at Anfield, Liverpool rated sure things with an 80% chance of being victorious.

As for Newcastle United, a 6% possibility equals roughly a one in seventeen chance of coming away with a win on Saturday.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation with only four weeks remaining of the season:

Relegated Sheff Utd

98% West Brom

89% Fulham

7% Burnley

4% Newcastle United

(less than) 1% Brighton

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Thursday morning.

This most recent round of Premier League matches very much going in Newcastle United’s favour, Joe Willock saving Steve Bruce’s bacon when the Head Coach’s ridiculous negative tactics in the second half, saw control handed to ten man West Ham who scored twice to equalise, only for the Arsenal loan player to come off the bench and score that late winner.

Elsewhere, Sheffield United were relegated after losing at Wolves, Burnley lost at Old Trafford, Brighton a goalless draw at Stamford Bridge, whilst Fulham of course were denied victory at Arsenal in the seventh minute of added time.

So basically, Fulham seen now as almost as far gone (89%) and West Brom (98%).

Burnley (7%) and Newcastle United (4%) seen as the only longshots capable of sinking towards that bottom three, even though Brighton are below Newcastle in the table they are rated as all but zero chance (less than 1%) of going down.

Indeed, if West Brom won at Leicester tonight (don’t laugh, the Baggies have won 5-2 at Chelsea and beaten Southampton 3-0 at home in their last two matches) they go level on points with Fulham and with a game in hand on Scott Parker’s team.


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