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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chances of beating West Brom and relegation probability

5 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against West Brom.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United visiting West Brom.

Their computer model gives West Brom a 31% chance of a win, it is 28% for a draw and a 41% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

Newcastle United are priced by the bookies at 2/1 to beat West Brom, that price roughly equating to a 33% chance of an away win, less than the FiveThirtyEight rating.

Indeed, the bookies actually make West Brom the favourites on Sunday at odds of 6/4 or less, which equates to a 40% or better chance.

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City a 99% chance, nobody else even a 1% possibility.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we are now past the two thirds point of the season:

98% Sheff Utd

97% West Brom

45% Fulham

32% Newcastle United

13% Burnley

3% Palace

7% Brighton

3% Southampton

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Wednesday morning.

Newcastle United are now only rated 11/10 (equivalent of 48% chance) by the bookies to be relegated, whereas the FiveThirtyEight probability of 32% equals just higher than 2/1.

Fulham are now 5/6 to be relegated with the bookies which equates to a 55% possibility, compared to the Super Computer model rating of 45%.

What isn’t in dispute is that as things stand, it is seen by most as a straight fight between Fulham and Newcastle for the last relegation spot, with the possibility of Burnley and Brighton being dragged into it.

Things may be a lot clearer by Sunday late afternoon, as Fulham are home to Tottenham on Thursday night and away to Liverpool on Sunday afternoon, playing just after the West Brom v Newcastle match which is a noon kick-off.

I have seen a fair few confident predictions that Fulham are pretty certain to lose both these matches BUT in this current run of only three defeats in their last fifteen Premier League games, it includes draws at home to Liverpool and away at Tottenham.

Bottom line is that it’s time Newcastle took responsibility and Steve Bruce ended his reliance on other PL cubs failing to pick up points. Only two wins in the last seventeen NUFC matches is embarrassing and Newcastle simply have to go to West Brom and beat a poor side with a convincing victory.


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