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Super Computer model says Newcastle United relegation too close to call

10 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the end season relegation fight and Sunday’s match against Tottenham.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United at home to Tottenham.

Their computer model gives Tottenham a 53% chance of a win, it is 25% for a draw and a 22% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

Newcastle United are priced by the bookies at a massive 5/1 to beat Tottenham, that price equating to a 16% chance of a home win, less than the FiveThirtyEight rating.

The bookies make Tottenham big favourites on Sunday at odds of around 4/7.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as NUFC now have only nine games of the season remaining:

99% Sheff Utd

99% West Brom

47% Newcastle United

47% Fulham

3% Burnley

1% Brighton

1% Southampton

This is how the actual Premier League table currently looks on Tuesday morning.

So using the computer modelling system, it is too close to call for Newcastle United and Fulham to be relegated alongside West Brom and Sheffield United.

Both clubs rated a 47% chance to go down, the likes of Brighton, Southampton and Burnley now seen as having minimal, if any, chance now of getting in trouble.

The bookies (BetVictor) currently rate the relegation odds as 1/200 Sheffield United, 1/200 West Brom, 4/5 Newcastle United, 5/4 Fulham, 16/1 Burnley, 20/1 Brighton, 33/1 Southampton.

Yet another massive weekend coming up, where a Newcastle win over Tottenham and Fulham defeat at Villa would put NUFC five points clear with a game in hand, United then with only eight to play and Fulham seven.

However, if Newcastle lose and Fulham win, the pair would swap places, Steve Bruce and his players in a relegation spot, one point behind Fulham and NUFC a far worse goal difference, plus of course that Fulham v Newcastle fixture to ‘look forward to’ on the final day…


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