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Super Computer model predicts Newcastle United relegation

4 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Friday’s match against Aston Villa.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United at home to Aston Villa.

Their computer model gives Aston Villa a 40% chance of a win, it is 28% for a draw and a 33% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

Newcastle United are priced by the bookies at 3/1 to beat Aston Villa, that price equating to a 25% chance of a home win, less than the FiveThirtyEight rating.

The bookies make Villa big favourites on Friday at odds of around 1/1, which equates to a 50% chance.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as NUFC now have only 11 games of the season remaining:

99% Sheff Utd

99% West Brom

41% Newcastle United

32% Fulham

12% Burnley

11% Brighton

3% Palace

1% Southampton

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Thursday morning.

So Newcastle United are now rated the favourites to be relegated alongside West Brom and Sheffield United.

The results of the past week tipping the balance, particularly Fulham beating Liverpool and Steve Bruce proclaiming a brilliant NUFC point at West Brom…

Even though Newcastle are still a point ahead of both Brighton and Fulham, the other factors make the computer model believe that Steve Bruce’s NUFC team are far more likely to go down. This is likely to be due to the remaining fixtures for the various clubs and of course recent form, the last three months seeing Newcastle win only two of eighteen matches (all competitions), only two of the last sixteen in the Premier League.

Wins against both Aston Villa and Brighton in the next two matches would completely transform the picture. However, when you have won only two of the last eighteen matches and have the worst manager in the Premier League, nothing looks easy for Newcastle United as things stand. A very tough schedule of games also then awaiting after the international break, as we move into April.

The bookies currently rate the relegation odds as 1/100 Sheffield United, 1/50 West Brom, 1/1 Newcastle United, 9/5 Fulham, 6/1 Brighton, 13/2 Burnley, 33/1 Crystal Palace and 66/1 Southampton.


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