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Super Computer model predicting defeat at Brighton and Newcastle United relegation

4 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Brighton.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this coming weekend, including Newcastle United away at Brighton.

Their computer model gives Brighton a 54% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 20% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

Newcastle United are priced by the bookies at a massive 11/2 to beat Brighton, that price equating to around a 15% chance of an away win, less than the FiveThirtyEight rating.

The bookies make Brighton big favourites on Saturday at odds of around 4/6.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as NUFC now have only 11 games of the season remaining:

99% Sheff Utd

99% West Brom

44% Newcastle United

41% Fulham

6% Brighton

5% Burnley

2% Southampton

1% Palace

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Thursday morning.

So Newcastle United are still rated the favourites to be relegated alongside West Brom and Sheffield United, despite improving by one point against Fulham last weekend.

The bad news being that both Burnley and Brighton had excellent away wins at Everton and Southampton respectively.

Even though Newcastle are still two points ahead of  Fulham, the other factors make the computer model believe that Steve Bruce’s NUFC team are far more likely to go down. This is likely to be due to the remaining fixtures for the various clubs and of course recent form, the last three months seeing Newcastle win only two of nineteen matches (all competitions), only two of the last seventeen in the Premier League.

This coming weekend looking pivotal, both to Newcastle’s survival chances AND how the prediction model (and bookies odds) will look heading into the international break.

Fulham at home to Leeds on Friday, before that Brighton v Newcastle clash.

The worst case scenario would see Newcastle third bottom, a point behind Fulham and four adrift of Brighton.

Having the worst manager in the Premier League doesn’t help either, plus a very tough schedule of games also then awaiting after the international break, as we move into April, this after Steve Bruce described the last three matches and Saturday at Brighton as looking like very winnable games. Only three draws against Wolves, West Brom and Villa.

The bookies currently rate the relegation odds as 1/200 Sheffield United, 1/100 West Brom, 10/11 Newcastle United, 5/4 Fulham, 14/1 Brighton, 20/1 Burnley, 33/1 Crystal Palace and 40/1 Southampton.


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