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Premier League relegation odds now say it all – Bookies react to Brighton 3 Newcastle 0

3 weeks ago
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Very interesting to see how the Premier League relegation odds are looking after Saturday night’s humiliating performance and disastrous result for Newcastle at Brighton.

Clubs going into the weekend with only nine or ten matches respectively remaining to decide which division they will be playing in next season.

In 63 days time Newcastle United fans will know their fate after the game at Craven Cottage, if not before then…

Going into this weekend, Fulham were third bottom on 26 points, Newcastle United fourth bottom on 28 points, then Brighton with 29 points, the latter pair both having a game in hand on Fulham.

Despite Fulham going into this weekend’s games two points behind Newcastle and having played one game more, it was Steve Bruce’s Newcastle United who were favourites to go down with West Brom and Sheff Utd, priced at odds-on to be relegated 10/11. Fulham then 6/5, with Brighton on 14/1.

After losing 2-1 at home to Leeds o Friday night, Fulham became the new favourites to go down at 5/6, Newcastle out to 5/4, Brighton big outsiders of the trio at 16/1.

Moving swiftly on from that piece of great fortune for Newcastle United, Steve Bruce and his team had a glorious chance to go five points clear of Fulham and relegation, plus rise above Brighton as well, if getting all three points on Saturday night.

Instead we got that abysmal cowardly display, appalling tactics and management, with a set of players who looked like they wanted to be anywhere but on a football pitch. It ended Brighton 3 Newcastle 0, it could have been a lot worse.

The updated Premier League relegation odds from Betfair on Sunday morning after that pathetic Newcastle performance:

1/200 Sheffield United

1/200 West Brom

8/11 Newcastle United

11/10 Fulham

25/1 Burnley

35/1 Brighton

45/1 Southampton

250/1 Crystal Palace

This is the updated Premier League table, how it looks now on Sunday morning after Brighton 3 Newcastle 0:

The picture couldn’t be clearer as presented by the bookies and punters with the Premier League relegation odds as we head into this international break.

West Brom and Sheffield United both already down, priced at 1/200 each.

Newcastle back to being 8/11 favourites and Fulham 11/10, even though Scott Parker’s team are two points behind NUFC and have played a game more.

Then Burnley 25/1, Brighton 35/1, Southampton 45/1 and Palace 250/1.

Yet amazingly, Steve Bruce on Friday was still insisting that at least six or seven other Premier League clubs as well as Newcastle are still worried that they will end up relegated in that final third spot alongside West Brom and Sheff Utd.

The thing is, the bookies and punters don’t just look at the Premier League when making their decisions, they look at the direction of travel and how teams have been performing, not just number of points picked up.

Newcastle United and Steve Bruce stick out on both counts, almost half a season and only two wins and 11 points from the last 18 PL games, seven points less than Fulham in that 18 match period and eleven points less than Brighton.

More than that, Bruce’s Newcastle have been poor to terrible in the vast majority of matches, clueless boring tactics as seen against the likes of West Brom and Sheffield United, now against Brighton as well.

The last 18 Premier League games have produced the following form for the three clubs who are 16th to 18th in the table:

Newcastle United – Won 2, Drawn 5, Lost 11, Points 11 Goals For 14 Goals Against 32

Brighton – Won 5, Drawn 7 Lost 6, Points 22 Goals For 17 Goals Against 18

Fulham – Won 3, Drawn 9, Lost 6, Points 18 Goals For 11 Goals Against 16

These are all the remaining matches for the three clubs seemingly competing for that final relegation place:

Fulham – Villa (A), Wolves (H), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A), Burnley (H), Southampton (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H)

Brighton – Man Utd (A), Everton (H), Chelsea (A), Sheff Utd (A), Leeds (H), Wolves (A), West Ham (H), Man City (H), Arsenal (A)

Newcastle United – Tottenham (H), Burnley (A), West Ham (H), Liverpool (A), Arsenal (H), Leicester (A), Man City (H), Sheff Utd (H), Fulham (A)

If Newcastle stick with Steve Bruce and his abysmal tactics and ‘style’ of play as seen on Saturday night, it is very hard to see where the next win might come from, or even the odd draw.

Looking at the games after the international break, to neutrals, they might think Newcastle could look to get something from Spurs at home and Burnley away. I just don’t see it as things stand. Hayden now out injured as well and with the likes of Shelvey and Hendrick in midfield I think every match looks daunting.

Fulham will pick up at least something I think from their next two against Villa away and Wolves at home. They also have Burnley home and Southampton away towards the end of the season, before of course the final day meeting with Newcastle.

Fulham may not pick up loads of points but as I look at it now, I can’t see them picking up less points than Newcastle United before the final weekend. At best, survival for NUFC might depend on getting a draw or even a win at Fulham on the final day. It just doesn’t bear thinking about.

That final match comes 11 days after the two year anniversary of Rafa Benitez’ final Newcastle match, NUFC hammering Fulham 4-0 at Craven Cottage with a massive following that day in London enjoying the sunshine, many of them getting to the match via a cruise up the Thames. There may well be sunshine on 23 May but there won’t be any Newcastle fans at Craven Cottage and instead of boats full of happy Geordies sailing up the Thames, it is difficult to see anything other than Mike Ashley sinking this ship for what will be a third time in Newcastle’s last 11 PL seasons.

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