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Premier League relegation odds after Friday Fulham result – Newcastle change small but significant

4 months ago

Very interesting to see how the Premier League relegation odds are looking after Friday night’s result at Fulham.

Clubs going into the weekend with only nine or ten matches respectively remaining to decide which division they will be playing in next season.

In 65 days time Newcastle United fans will know their fate after the game at Craven Cottage, if not before then…

Going into this weekend, Fulham were third bottom on 26 points, Newcastle United fourth bottom on 28 points, then Brighton with 29 points, the latter pair both having a game in hand on Fulham.

Despite Fulham going into this weekend’s games two points behind Newcastle and having played one game more, it was Steve Bruce’s Newcastle United who were favourites to go down with West Brom and Sheff Utd, priced at odds-on to be relegated 10/11.

Fulham then 6/5, with Brighton on 14/1.

At Craven Cottage last night, Bamford brought a cheer from Newcastle fans watching on TV, scoring the opening goal for Leeds on 29 minutes. However, only nine minutes later Andersen scored to make it 1-1 at half-time.

An entertaining game on the night with 26 shots evenly shared and a total of 20 corners (13 Fulham and 7 Leeds) but it was Raphina who got the decisive striker in the 58th minute to give Leeds the win. Fulham did have chances to equalise as their play became even more urgent, though Leeds also had excellent chances to make it 3-1 and out of sight.

Leeds seeing the game out 2-1 and moving to eleventh in the table (see below) on 39 points.

Fulham groans and Newcastle (and Brighton) cheers at the final whistle but what difference has it made to the Premier League relegation odds…?

The updated Premier League relegation odds from Betfair on Saturday morning after Leeds won 2-1 at Fulham on Friday night (The odds in brackets are the ones that existed before Fulham lost this match):

1/200 (1/200) Sheffield United

1/200 (1/200) West Brom

5/6 (6/5) Fulham

5/4 (10/11) Newcastle United

16/1 (14/1) Brighton

22/1 (16/1) Burnley

40/1 (25/1) Southampton

175/1 (125/1) Crystal Palace

This is the updated Premier League table, how it looks now on Saturday morning after Fulham’s defeat to Leeds:

The result a massive blow for Fulham as they would have seen Leeds at home as one of their best remaining chances of a win.

However, as you can see, the bookies have reacted with only a small but significant change.

Fulham the new favourites to go down at 5/6, Newcastle now out to 5/4 (rated more likely to stay up than go down), with Brighton big outsiders of the three 16/1.

Having a two points advantage and two extra games to play, many Newcastle fans will be surprised at how small the change in relegation odds has been. However, it sums up how both bookies and punters see Newcastle United, a team that has won only two of their last nineteen matches and no confidence of many, if any, wins to come in the remaining ten NUFC games.

The pricing on the other match which sums up what the bookies think of the teams at the bottom, Brighton odds on 4/6 to win and Newcastle United a massive 6/1 to taste victory on the south coast.

A victory for Newcastle would of course be a massive game changer in terms of the bookie relegation odds and indeed the belief of Newcastle fans and neutrals that NUFC will stay  up.

The last 17 Premier League games have produced the following form for the three main relegation contenders:

Newcastle United – Won 2, Drawn 5, Lost 10, Points 11 Goals For 14 Goals Against 29

Brighton – Won 4, Drawn 7 Lost 6, Points 19 Goals For 14 Goals Against 18

Fulham – Won 3, Drawn 8, Lost 6, Points 17 Goals For 11 Goals Against 16

These are all the remaining matches for the three clubs seemingly competing for that final relegation place:

Fulham – Villa (A), Wolves (H), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A), Burnley (H), Southampton (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H)

Brighton – Newcastle (H), Man Utd (A), Everton (H), Chelsea (A), Sheff Utd (A), Leeds (H), Wolves (A), West Ham (H), Man City (H), Arsenal (A)

Newcastle United – Brighton (A), Tottenham (H), Burnley (A), West Ham (H), Liverpool (A), Arsenal (H), Leicester (A), Man City (H), Sheff Utd (H), Fulham (A)


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