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Opinion

Major shift in Premier League relegation odds as path to Championship ever clearer

4 months ago
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Very interesting to see how the Premier League relegation odds are looking after the weekend’s relegation-related results.

Clubs with only nine or ten matches respectively remaining to decide which division they will be playing in next season.

In 69 days time Newcastle United fans will know their fate after the game at Craven Cottage, if not before then…

The weekend kicked off with both Sheffield United and West Brom already all but relegated and probably most football fans seeing four potential candidates to take the third spot for the drop.

Sam Allardyce lost 1-0 at Crystal Palace, whilst the departure of Chris Wilder didn’t produce an instant ‘bounce’ for the caretaker boss Paul Heckingbottom, hammered 5-0 at Leicester and as the joke goes – they were lucky to get nil.

Only a question of time for this pair to be mathematically confirmed as relegated, long before we reach Sunday 23 May.

As for the quartet looking to fill the remaining spot, Newcastle United were first up on Friday night.

A match low on quality from both sides saw the ball repeatedly given away and as it looked to be heading for another goalless NUFC game, Watkins’s header was deflected by Ciaran Clark past Dubravka in the 86th minute. The final action of the match saw substitute Jacob Murphy crossing for Jamaal Lascelles to get a dramatic 94th minute equaliser, Newcastle fans hoping this point may prove pivotal down the line.

Steve Bruce once again declaring it a great point, as he had done the previous week after the shocking 0-0 at West Brom, the Wolves home game as well the week before that. These were supposed to be the winnable games according to Steve Bruce, yet suddenly three draws is supposed to be cause for celebration.

Then on Saturday, Burnley deservedly won 2-1 at Everton, a massive result that arguably puts them now in the looking well on the way to safety category.

Fulham played well in the first half to keep it goalless but despite recent excellent defensive displays and only two goals conceded in their last seven PL matches, Scott Parker’s team played a part in their own downfall as Man City ran out eventual 3-0 winners.

Sunday brought a massive game to conclude the weekend’s relegation action, Newcastle desperately needing Brighton to lose. Graham Potter’s men though were the better team, winning the south coast contest with a deserved 2-1 away win at Southampton, a potential nightmare for Steve Bruce and his players as it lifted the Seagulls above the Magpies.

This is the updated Premier League table, how it looks now on Monday morning following the weekend’s relegation battle results:

Now we have the updated Premier League relegation odds from Betfair on Monday after the Brighton 2-1 win at Southampton on Sunday, completed the relegation-related results:

1/200 Sheffield United

1/200 West Brom

10/11 Newcastle United

6/5 Fulham

14/1 Brighton

16/1 Burnley

25/1 Southampton

125/1 Crystal Palace

The bookies and punters seeing this relegation battle very very clearly now.

West Brom and Sheffield United are well gone, 1/200 no-hopers to go down.

Burnley’s win taking them seven points clear of the relegation zone and the bookies now seeing them safe at 16/1 to still go down.

Indeed, for the bookies, it isn’t even a case of it now being cut to a three-way fight for the last relegation spot, they see it as only a two-way one. Brighton are only three points clear of the drop and only one point ahead of Newcastle, yet they are priced at 14/1 to go down. Everybody can see that under Graham Potter the Seagulls have been playing some really good football and the feeling being, including amongst the bookies, that they will comfortably get enough points on the back of their football.

So for the punters and bookies, a simple contest between Steve Bruce’s Newcastle at 10/11 to go down and Scott Parker’s Fulham 6/5.

Next weekend though looks massive ahead of the international break.

Fulham play at home to Leeds on Friday night, followed by Brighton v Newcastle on Saturday evening.

A Fulham win would send them a point clear of relegation and Newcastle replacing them in the bottom three, with then the Brighton game looming for Steve Bruce. If everything goes wrong, next weekend would end with Newcastle third bottom, Fulham a point above and Brighton four points clear of NUFC.

As for how the bookies view those two key games, there are clear messages.

Fulham favourites at 6/4 to beat Leeds who are 9/5.

However, it is the pricing on the other match which sums up what the bookies think of the teams at the bottom, Brighton odds on 8/13 to win and Newcastle United a massive 6/1 to taste victory on the south coast. Remember, this is the fourth of the four matches that Steve Bruce had long described as the winnable ones…

The last 17 Premier League games have produced the following form for the three main relegation contenders:

Newcastle United – Won 2, Drawn 5, Lost 10, Points 11 Goals For 14 Goals Against 29

Brighton – Won 4, Drawn 7 Lost 6, Points 19 Goals For 14 Goals Against 18

Fulham – Won 3, Drawn 9, Lost 5, Points 18 Goals For 10 Goals Against 14

These are all the remaining matches for the three clubs seemingly competing for that final relegation place:

Fulham – Leeds (H), Villa (A), Wolves (H), Arsenal (A), Chelsea (A), Burnley (H), Southampton (A), Man Utd (A), Newcastle (H)

Brighton – Newcastle (H), Man Utd (A), Everton (H), Chelsea (A), Sheff Utd (A), Leeds (H), Wolves (A), West Ham (H), Man City (H), Arsenal (A)

Newcastle United – Brighton (A), Tottenham (H), Burnley (A), West Ham (H), Liverpool (A), Arsenal (H), Leicester (A), Man City (H), Sheff Utd (H), Fulham (A)

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