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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chances of beating Southampton and relegation probability

6 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Southampton.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including Newcastle United hosting Southampton.

Their computer model gives Southampton a 34% chance of a win, it is 28% for a draw and a 38% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City an 88% chance, Man Utd 7%  and Liverpool 4%.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we are now past the halfway point:

97% West Brom

86% Sheff Utd

70% Fulham

27% Newcastle United

12% Burnley

2% Brighton

2% Palace

2% Wolves

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Thursday morning, Brighton’s 1-0 win at Anfield having a real impact in terms of both title winning and relegation probability.

Brighton having beaten both Spurs and Liverpool in the matter of a few days and without conceding a single goal, seeing them put results on top of the often excellent football Graham Potter had them playing.

The relegation ‘race’ looking increasingly likely to revolve around whether any of the bottom three can manage to break out and close on the likes of Newcastle and / or Burnley.

Amazingly, Sheffield United suddenly winning three of their last five after no wins in their first 17 PL matches.

Sheff Utd still have to visit St James Park but Newcastle have away games at West Brom, Fulham, Burnley and Brighton.


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