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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chances of beating Chelsea and relegation probability

10 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Monday’s match against Chelsea

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including Newcastle United hosting Chelsea.

Their computer model gives Chelsea a 76% chance of a win, it is 17% for a draw and a 7% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

Newcastle United are priced by the bookies at 14/1 to beat Chelsea, that price roughly equating to a 7% chance of an away win.

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City an 95% chance, Man Utd 1%  and Liverpool 1%.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we are now past the halfway point:

98% West Brom

90% Sheff Utd

72% Fulham

20% Newcastle United

10% Burnley

4% Palace

2% Brighton

2% Wolves

This is how the actual Premier League table looks on Saturday morning.

Newcastle United rated 7/2 by the bookies to be relegated, whereas the FiveThirtyEight probability of 20% equals 4/1.

The books and this probability system both agreed though, that if anybody is going to replace one of the bottom three, Newcastle United are the most likely.

Fulham seen as the most likely to escape and they have Everton away on Sunday and then Burnley away on Wednesday, followed by Sheffield United at home next Saturday, before Palace away on the last day of the month. The time coming where they have to start turning draws (have drawn 8 of their last 11 Premier League games) into wins, probably needing something like seven points or more from these four February matches if they are going to stand any chance, though they have a game in hand on Newcastle which is being played as one of those four matches. NUFC only having three more PL games to play this month.


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