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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chances of beating Leeds and relegation probability

10 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Tuesday’s match against Leeds.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including Newcastle United hosting Leeds.

Their computer model gives Leeds a 39% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 35% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City an 79% chance, Man Utd 11%, Liverpool 5%, Tottenham 2% and Leicester 2%.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we are now at the halfway point:

92% Sheff Utd

91% West Brom

51% Fulham

32% Newcastle United

13% Burnley

9% Brighton

5% Palace

4% Wolves

3% Leeds

The relegation ‘race’ looking increasingly likely to be between six clubs.

This abysmal run of ten games without a win (all competitions) and only one goal in thirteen hours of football, has made Newcastle United the fourth highest probability to go down.

If Newcastle keep on losing, there are some other massive relegation clashes happening this week, that would be sure to put extra pressure on, whichever way their results went. In particular, Fulham have an away game at Brighton on Wednesday night, then travel to West Brom on Saturday.


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