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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chances of beating Everton and relegation probability

3 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Everton.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including Newcastle United visiting Everton.

Their computer model gives Everton a 57% chance of a win, it is 25% for a draw and a 18% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City an 84% chance, Liverpool 8%, Man Utd 5%  and Leicester 2%.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we are now at the halfway point:

93% West Brom

86% Sheff Utd

52% Fulham

39% Newcastle United

9% Brighton

8% Burnley

8% Palace

3% Wolves

2% Leeds

The relegation ‘race’ looking increasingly likely to be between six clubs.

This abysmal run of eleven games without a win (all competitions) and only two goals in over fourteen hours of football, has made Newcastle United the fourth highest probability to go down.

If Newcastle keep on losing, there are some other massive relegation clashes happening in these next few days, that would be sure to put extra pressure on, including West Brom v Fulham and Sheffield United v West Brom.


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