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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chance of beating Sheffield United and relegation probability

9 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Tuesday’s match against Sheffield United.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including NUFC’s game against Sheffield United.

Their computer model gives Sheffield United a 39% chance of a win, it is 30% for a draw and a 31% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 15% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 69% chance, Man Utd 10%, Tottenham 2%, Chelsea 1%,and Leicester 1%.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we are now into 2021:

95% West Brom

93% Sheff Utd

45% Fulham

20% Burnley

17% Newcastle United

16% Brighton

8% Palace

3% Leeds

2% Wolves

The relegation ‘race’ looking increasingly like between six clubs.

Defeat for Sheffield United tonight would surely end even any faint remaining hopes of survival, though a win would see them ‘only’ nine points off safety behind fourth bottom Brighton, as well as very much dragging Newcastle into the mix. Steve Bruce’s team currently on a run of seven games without a win and just the one goal in eight hours of football.

However, a victory for Newcastle at Bramall Lane would see them looking pretty secure, 11 points ahead of third bottom Fulham, 14 points above West Brom and a massive 20 points in front of Sheffield United.


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