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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chance of beating Leicester and relegation probability

9 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Sunday’s match against Leicester.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including NUFC’s game against Leicester.

Their computer model gives Leicester a 51% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 23% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 24% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 55% chance, Man Utd 12%, Chelsea 4%, Tottenham 2%, Leicester 1% and Villa 1%, everybody else (including Newcastle!) having a less than 1% chance of winning the league.

Newcastle United aren’t given even a 1% chance to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we are now into 2021:

92% West Brom

90% Sheff Utd

46% Fulham

20% Burnley

17% Brighton

16% Newcastle United

14% Palace

2% Leeds

2% Wolves

Five of the bottom six in the Premier League rated more likely than Newcastle United to be relegated, even though Palace are below NUFC and the Magpies have a game in hand.


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