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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chance of beating Aston Villa and relegation probability

1 month ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against Aston Villa.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, which on this occasion is only NUFC’s game against Aston Villa.

Their computer model gives Aston Villa a 63% chance of a win, it is 22% for a draw and a 15% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability Man City an 80% chance, Man Utd 11%, Liverpool 5%, Tottenham 2% and Leicester 2%.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we are now into 2021:

93% Sheff Utd

91% West Brom

51% Fulham

27% Newcastle United

14% Burnley

9% Brighton

6% Palace

4% Wolves

3% Leeds

The relegation ‘race’ looking increasingly likely to between six clubs.

This abysmal run of nine games without a win (all competitions) and only one goal in almost twelve hours of football, has made Newcastle United the fourth highest probability to go down, even though Brighton and Burnley are currently just below NUFC in the table.

The probability above is 27% and that is close to how the bookies see it, currently having Newcastle as 2/1 (33% probability) to go down.

Needless to say, if this woeful run under Steve Bruce continues, the probability will only increase of Newcastle United to be relegated, especially if Fulham start picking up wins, having drawn five of their last seven PL matches.


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