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This will be how to measure progression (or not..) at Newcastle United this season

9 months ago

Well, last night was a pleasant surprise, the anticipated hammering from Liverpool never came.

For once I have to give Steve Bruce and all the Newcastle United players a little bit of credit for that hard earned point.

We may have lacked quality , we hardly threatened, Liverpool did squander a few decent chances , but I actually felt we just about deserved that result, something I haven’t been able to say too often this season (or the last).

So 19 points from 15 games statistically puts us on course for an additional 29 points on top of the points we have, so we would finish the season on 48 points if the average points per game continued out to be the case.

I don’t know what everybody’s own target would have been for the team at the start of the season, mine was 50 points and a top 10 finish.

I have now analysed the fixtures that remain and how we did in the same fixtures last season, well there’s good news as far as survival goes and bad news as far as anything you could call “progression” goes.

If we were to replicate the same results with the remaining fixtures (Not including West Brom A, Leeds H, Fulham A) We would get 18 points from the same fixtures from last season and given we averaged 1.33 points per game against promoted opposition last season, that would be an additional 4 points on top, 22 points in total from now on top of 19 points. So it would end the season on 41 points if the same points total from last season’s remaining matches was to repeat itself.

Now 41 points wouldn’t be relegation but it would be a total failure if it were to happen, as it would not be progression at all, as far as points total and likely position in the table that would bring.

Of course every football match is different and it’s very unlikely it will play out the same way, but the worrying thing is though, from the same fixtures we have faced to date we are five points worse off from last season. We are no better off against the promoted teams this season than last season either with four points from three games as it works out the same average point per game against promotion teams last season. So if we are five points worse off already after 16 games, should we be worried about a possible relegation battle?

I don’t believe Newcastle United will get relegated as there are at least six or seven teams worse off than we are we, it’s not more points I’m asking for, I want to see the same effort and commitment we witnessed last night in every remaining game this season.

That should be the bare minimum required from Steve Bruce and the players and I’d also like to see that bit more adventure I know we are more than capable of, we showed glimpses of it and we were better for it.

There’s more to this team than just sitting back and hoping not to get beat. Hopefully the first half from last night at least encourages Steve Bruce to allow the team to break over the halfway line more than three times a game, hopefully 2021 can be better for everybody.

Better performances on the pitch , the ownership at long last changed for the better and more importantly away from football, good health and a better year for everybody. Hopefully we can go back to normal as a country and look forward, rather than back.

All comments welcome and happy new year everybody.


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