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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chance of beating West Brom and relegation probability

10 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday’s match against West Brom.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this game against West Brom.

Their computer model gives West Brom a 21% chance of a win, it is 27% for a draw and a 52% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 25% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 49% chance, Chelsea 12%, Tottenham 7% and Man Utd 5%, everybody else (including Newcastle!) having a less than 1% chance of winning the league.

Newcastle United aren’t given even a 1% chance to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we head towards a third of the season gone:

83% West Brom

68% Sheff Utd

51% Fulham

44% Burnley

14% Newcastle United

11% Brighton

10% Palace

8% Leeds

3% Everton

2% Wolves

2% Villa

1% West Ham

1% Southampton

1% Arsenal

Only the bottom four in the Premier League rated more likely than Newcastle United to be relegated, even though Leeds, Arsenal and Brighton are currently below NUFC in the table.

A golden chance surely on Saturday for Newcastle to send hot relegation favourites West Brom another step closer to an instant relegation, interesting to see if Steve Bruce allows the team to attack a little bit more.


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