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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chance of beating Liverpool and relegation probability

7 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Wednesday’s match against Liverpool.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game against Liverpool.

Their computer model gives Liverpool a 69% chance of a win, it is 19% for a draw and a 13% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 30% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 50% chance, Man Utd 8%, Chelsea 5%, Tottenham 2%, Leicester 2% and Villa 1%, everybody else (including Newcastle!) having a less than 1% chance of winning the league.

Newcastle United aren’t given even a 1% chance to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we head towards 2021:

85% West Brom

85% Sheff Utd

46% Fulham

28% Burnley

18% Newcastle United

15% Palace

14% Brighton

5% Leeds

2% Wolves

1% Arsenal

Only four of the bottom six in the Premier League rated more likely than Newcastle United to be relegated, even though Brighton and Arsenal are currently below NUFC in the table. Brighton rated less chance of going down, even though Newcastle are currently five points ahead of them and with a game in hand, whilst also a game in hand of Arsenal who are one point adrift of NUFC.

The bookies make Liverpool a 1/4 chance to beat Newcastle which is the equivalent of an 80% probability, compared to this super computer model rating Liverpool at a slightly lesser 69% chance of winning, Newcastle with a 13% probability according to the super computer generated model, slightly higher than the bookies who have NUFC at 12/1, which is the equivalent of around an 8% possibility.


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