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Super Computer rates Newcastle United chance of beating Leeds and relegation probability

9 months ago

Interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Wednesday’s match against Leeds.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all Premier League matches this midweek, including this game against Leeds.

Their computer model gives Leeds a 47% chance of a win, it is 26% for a draw and a 27% possibility of a Newcastle win (percentage probabilities rounded up/down to nearest whole number).

When it comes to winning the title, they have the probability as 20% of Liverpool retaining the title and Man City a 55% chance, Chelsea 9%, Tottenham 7%, Man Utd 6%, Leicester 2%, everybody else (including Newcastle!) having a less than 1% chance of winning the league.

Newcastle United aren’t given even a 1% chance to finish top four.

Also interesting to see how the computer model rates the percentage probability chances of relegation as we head towards a third of the season gone:

87% West Brom

78% Sheff Utd

47% Fulham

35% Burnley

16% Brighton

11% Newcastle United

11% Leeds

8% Palace

3% Wolves

2% Arsenal

1% Everton

1% Villa

Only the bottom five in the Premier League rated more likely than Newcastle United to be relegated, even though Wolves and Arsenal are currently below NUFC in the table. Leeds rated the same chance even though Newcastle are currently three points ahead of them and with a game in hand.

The bookies make Leeds a 4/5 odds on chance to beat Newcastle which is the equivalent of a 60% probability, compared to this super computer model rating Leeds at a lower 47% chance of winning, Newcastle with a 27% probability according to the super computer generated model, very similar to the bookies who have NUFC at 7/2, equivalent of a 28% possibility.


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